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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Thursday (6/1)

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It’s a short Thursday slate, with only seven games on the schedule today and several teams having their ace take the mound. Games for the day begin at 1:07 so let’s dive into the best NRFI bets.

Season to Date: 18-15

Thursday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets – 1:10 ET

The demise of Max Scherzer appears to be a bit overblown when looking at his ERA, but the estimators paint a slightly different story. The strikeouts are down and that is paired with a raise in walk rates and more home runs than in previous seasons. The Phillies’ offense has been among the worst in the league in the last two weeks with a wRC+ of 83. Scherzer has always been excellent in the early parts of games, with a 0.268 wOBA allowed the first time through the order. Despite the potential upside of this Phillies’ offense, I believe that Scherzer should be able to hold them down.

The Mets’ offense is going in the opposite direction from the Phillies’ one. In the last fourteen days, the Mets have a 119 wRC+ which is tied for third in baseball. Taijuan Walker is being asked to hold them down and his first season in Philly has not gone as hoped. While his strikeouts have remained the same, the walks and home runs have risen. However, Walker has been decent in his career the first time through the order, allowing a 0.302 wOBA; this is not elite-level, but is still excellent in the long run. His goal will be to limit the free passes and that should go a long way to keeping a clean first frame.

Pick: -115

Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox – 7:10 ET

Chris Sale is taking the mound for the Red Sox and the left-hander has been excellent after a slow start to his season. The ERA remains elevated, but that is due to the rough beginning and a slightly elevated HR/9. The strikeouts are excellent, and he faces a Reds offense with a slightly above-average wRC+ against lefties (102). However, their offense does not strike fear in me from a betting standpoint. In his career, Sale has been one of the better pitchers for the first time through the order with a 0.259 wOBA allowed. He should have no issues getting through the first inning cleanly.

After a hot start, the Red Sox offense has cratered. In the last two weeks, they have a 79 wRC+, which is equal to that of the Royals. Hunter Greene is tasked with keeping them down and he is showing some elite skills. The Ks are among the league’s best and the only things holding him back are a slightly elevated walk rate and a few too many long balls. He has allowed a 0.286 wOBA the first time through the order in his career, which is excellent, and he should be able to continue through this one today.

Pick: -110

Also make sure to check out the rest of Thursday’s best bets:


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