MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (7/28)
All 30 MLB teams are in play today across 16 contests since the Reds and Guardians are playing a doubleheader. The games begin at 1:40 p.m. ET. There are ample contests to pick from for the best MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks or MLB yes runs first inning (YRFI) picks.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Toronto Blue Jays (+119) at Washington Nationals (-144) | O/U 9.0 (EVEN/-120)
Starting Pitchers: Shane Bieber vs. Cade Cavalli
Shane Bieber began the year on the injured list (IL). He made his season debut for the Blue Jays on June 23rd. It was a shaky beginning to his 2026 campaign. Bieber allowed four runs in only 3.2 innings in his first start, two across 5.1 innings in his second and seven in four innings in his third. Bieber surrendered a run in the first inning in his first two starts.
However, Bieber has pitched better lately. According to FanGraphs, in Bieber’s last three starts spanning 17.2 innings, he’s logged the following numbers:
- 1.53 ERA
- 3.82 xERA
- 3.70 xFIP
- 3.95 SIERA
- 0.96 WHIP
- 7.4% walk rate
- 19.1% strikeout rate
- 10.3% SwStr%
- 27% CSW%
- 88 stuff+
- 98 location+
- 91 pitching+
Biber’s profile certainly isn’t pristine, and his pitch-modeling data is a bit alarming. Nevertheless, he had an 89 stuff+, 101 location+ and 95 pitching+ in his two most recent starts, and things might be trending in the right direction.
Furthermore, Bieber has thrown a scoreless first inning in back-to-back starts and three of his last four.
Cade Cavalli is the A-side of this pitching matchup. In 11 home starts spanning 55.1 innings, Cavalli has twirled a 3.90 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, 1.34 WHIP, 6.2% walk rate and 26.1% strikeout rate.
The young righty is also dialed in. In his last five starts, totaling 27.1 innings, Cavalli has dazzled with the following numbers:
- 2.30 ERA
- 2.12 xERA
- 1.72 xFIP
- 2.14 SIERA
- 0.88 WHIP
- 4.8% walk rate
- 36.5% strikeout rate
- 11.5% SwStr%
- 27.9% CSW%
- 102 stuff+
- 104 location+
- 103 pitching+
Cavalli is a whiz early in starts. He has a 1.94 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP, 8.1% walk rate and 26.3% strikeout rate in his first time through the order as a starter in 2026. Moreover, Cavalli has a 16-6 NRFI-YRFI record, tossing a scoreless first inning in four straight starts. He’s also sporting a 9-2 NRFI-YRFI record at home in 2026.
Bieber and Cavalli should start the game with a scoreless first inning.
Pick: NRFI (-105)
Milwaukee Brewers (-143) at San Francisco Giants (+119) | O/U 7.5 (-111/-109)
Starting Pitchers: Logan Henderson vs. Landen Roupp
Logan Henderson is cooking with gas this year, and an IL stint that sidelined him from late May until July 9th is the only knock on his work this season. The 24-year-old righty has produced the following pristine numbers in eight starts spanning 38.1 innings:
- 3.05 ERA
- 2.88 xERA
- 2.96 xFIP
- 2.88 SIERA
- 0.94 WHIP
- 4.7% walk rate
- 31.8% strikeout rate
- 12.9% SwStr%
- 28.5% CSW%
- 105 stuff+
- 105 location+
- 106 pitching+
Henderson has shoved opponents in the locker early in games. He has a 2.33 ERA, 2.55 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, 5.6% walk rate and 36.1% strikeout rate in his first time through the order as a starter this season. Furthermore, in 13 career starts since debuting in the Majors in 2025, Henderson has a 1.72 ERA, 2.66 xFIP, 0.83 WHIP, 6% walk rate and 36.8% strikeout rate.
Henderson’s early-game dominance starts in the first inning. He’s thrown a scoreless first inning in seven out of eight starts, including tossing five straight and going a perfect 4-0 on the road this season. Per Baseball-Reference, Henderson has allowed only one run in the first inning on a solo home run in 13 career starts.
Landen Roupp’s full-season pitching numbers are rock-solid. Still, he’s at his best at home. In eight home starts spanning 55.1 innings this season, Roupp has a 3.80 ERA, 3.41 xFIP, 1.34 WHIP, 6.2% walk rate and 26.1% strikeout rate.
The 27-year-old righty has done an excellent job of avoiding damage early. He has a 2.89 ERA and 3.47 xFIP in his first time through the order as a starter this season and a 2.93 ERA and 3.69 xFIP in his first time through the order in 46 career starts.
Roupp has a 16-4 NRFI-YRFI record in 2026. He’s thrown a scoreless first inning in three straight starts, and he’s a perfect 8-0 at home. Finally, Roupp has allowed just six runs and a .569 OPS in the first inning this season. An NRFI should be in the cards at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park tonight.
Pick: NRFI (-140)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.