MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (8/25)
All 30 MLB teams are in play today across 15 contests, with games beginning at 6:40 p.m. ET. There are ample contests to pick from for today’s best MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks or MLB yes runs first inning (YRFI) picks.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Kansas City Royals (+104) at Toronto Blue Jays (-122) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)
Starting Pitchers: Seth Lugo vs. Max Scherzer
Seth Lugo and Max Scherzer will square off in a matchup of two shaky pitchers, if someone is friendly in describing them, and bad pitchers if they’re less kind. According to FanGraphs, Lugo has a 4.71 ERA, 5.17 xERA, 4.45 xFIP and 4.55 SIERA in 26 starts this season. In addition, he has a 5.63 ERA and 4.40 xFIP in 12 road tilts.
Conversely, Scherzer has a 7.40 ERA, 4.69 xERA, 5.58 xFIP and 5.31 SIERA in 11 starts. He’s also been at his worst at home. In seven home starts, Scherzer has an eye-popping 8.33 ERA and 5.53 xFIP.
Neither pitcher has gotten off on the right foot, either. Lugo has a 3.86 ERA and 4.00 xFIP in his first time through the order in 2026. Scherzer has a 5.96 ERA and 5.46 xFIP in his first time through the order this year.
A scoreless first inning has also been a coin flip for both pitchers. Lugo has a 14-12 NRFI-YRFI record in 26 starts this year, going 6-6 on the road and 6-4 in his last 10 starts. Scherzer is 5-6 this season after going 8-9 last year. He’s 3-4 at home and has allowed a run in the first inning in back-to-back starts.
The offenses aren’t especially potent. Still, they have enough punch to scratch at least one run across the plate in the first inning against two pitchers who’ve struggled to start games with a scoreless first inning. You should take the YRFI in this contest.
Pick: YRFI (-106)
Cleveland Guardians (-142) at Los Angeles Angels (+120) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
Starting Pitchers: Gavin Williams vs. Walbert Urena
Gavin Williams has pitched well this season. He’s logged the following numbers in 26 starts this year:
- 3.72 ERA
- 3.91 xERA
- 2.86 xFIP
- 2.96 SIERA
- 1.09 WHIP
- 7.7% walk rate
- 32.4% strikeout rate
- 14.3% SwStr%
- 31.7% CSW%
- 105 stuff+
- 105 location+
- 109 pitching+
The righty hasn’t wasted time getting into a groove, either. He has a 2.97 ERA and 3.04 xFIP in his first time through the order. Moreover, Williams has a 20-6 NRFI-YRFI record this season, throwing a scoreless first inning in four straight starts and nine of his last 10.
Walbert Urena has pitched better than Williams by some metrics. He has amassed the following statistics in 21 starts:
- 2.84 ERA
- 3.23 xERA
- 4.17 xFIP
- 4.37 SIERA
- 1.19 WHIP
- 12.1% walk rate
- 23.1% strikeout rate
- 11.7% SwStr%
- 27.9% CSW%
- 99 stuff+
- 102 location+
- 104 pitching+
While Urena’s overall numbers are rock-solid or better, he’s been lights out early. He has a 1.50 ERA and 3.71 xFIP in his first time through the order as a starter this season. Moreover, Urena has a blistering 19-2 NRFI-YRFI record, rattling off 10 straight scoreless first innings and going a perfect 12-0 in home starts.
The line for an NRFI is chalky. Nevertheless, Williams and Urena have been so dominant early in games that backing the NRFI is alluring.
Pick: NRFI (-142)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.