MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/22)
All 30 MLB teams are in play today across 16 contests, with games beginning at 1:05 p.m. ET, with the first game of a doubleheader. There are ample contests to pick from for the best MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks or MLB yes runs first inning (YRFI) picks.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Tampa Bay Rays (+116) at New York Yankees (-136) | O/U 6.5 (-118/-104)
Starting Pitchers: Drew Rasmussen vs. Max Fried
Drew Rasmussen and Max Fried will square off in the second game of a doubleheader. Both teams have punched their playoff tickets, so they could conceivably give a starter or two the second game of the doubleheader off.
Regardless, both pitchers have been great this year. According to FanGraphs, Rasmussen has a 2.72 ERA, 3.12 xERA, 3.25 xFIP and 3.34 SIERA in 29 starts in 2026. Fried has a 2.63 ERA, 2.48 xERA, 3.56 xFIP and 3.73 SIERA in 19 starts this year.
They’re both starting games off on the right foot. Rasmussen has a 2.00 ERA and 3.28 xFIP in his first time through the order. He has a 25-4 NRFI-YRFI record with 12 straight NRFI and a 12-2 record on the road.
Meanwhile, Fried has a less impressive 3.86 ERA in his first time through the order, but a more palatable 3.41 xFIP. Furthermore, the lefty has a 14-4 NRFI-YRFI record in 2026, with six straight NRFI and a 6-2 record at home. Additionally, he allowed runs in the first inning in his first two home starts this season and has rattled off six straight NRFI at home since.
Pick: NRFI (-156)
Arizona Diamondbacks (-188) at Colorado Rockies (+158) | O/U 10.5 (-132/+108)
Starting Pitchers: Michael Soroka vs. Kyle Freeland
Coors Field is a hitter’s paradise. In fact, per FantasyPros, Coors Field is comfortably the top hitting ballpark, with a park factor of 1.310 for runs, 1.112 for homers, 1.239 for singles, 1.275 for doubles and 2.101 for triples.
Michael Soroka is a decent pitcher. In 19 starts and one relief appearance this year, he has a 3.45 ERA, 4.21 xERA, 3.67 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA. Soroka has outkicked his ERA estimators, and he’s not an exceptional pitcher. Thus, he’s not immune to the hitting conditions at Coors Field.
Soroka is also susceptible to left-handed batters. He’s allowed a .325 wOBA to 259 left-handed batters this season. Three left-handed batters or switch-hitters occupy the top-five spots in Colorado’s lineup, starting with Jake McCarthy in the leadoff spot, TJ Rumfield in the third spot and Cole Carrigg in the fifth spot.
Kyle Freeland stinks out loud. The 33-year-old lefty has a 6.38 ERA, 5.32 xERA, 4.25 xFIP and 4.26 SIERA in 24 starts this year.
Freeland has coughed up a .401 wOBA to 416 right-handed batters this year and a .424 wOBA to 213 right-handed batters at home. Arizona projects to bat switch-hitter Ildemaro Vargas in the leadoff spot, followed by switch-hitter Ketel Marte, righty Gabriel Moreno and switch-hitter Geraldo Perdomo in the first four spots in their order.
Freeland has only a 15-10 NRFI-YRFI record this year, allowing a run in the first in four of his last seven starts. He has an 8-3 record at home, but he was blown up for six runs by the Diamondbacks at Colorado on May 15. The Diamondbacks and Rockies should combine for at least one run in the first inning tonight.
Pick: YRFI (-142)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.