MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (4/5)
Wednesday features a full slate with 12 of 13 games being afternoon matchups so make sure you get your bets in early. Here are a few of the best NRFI bets for Wednesday.
Wednesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, 12:35 PM ET
Marcus Stroman vs. Hunter Greene
I know what you are thinking; why on earth would you bet the NRFI in this game? It hasn’t hit in the first two games in this series.
While this is true, this series has had abysmal starting pitching. Despite scoring a combined eight runs in the first innings, it was against guys like Luis Cessa, Hayden Wesneski, Drew Smyly, and Connor Overton, who are not exactly the cream of the crop.
Today we get the aces of these teams’ staff. Stroman and Greene are making their second starts of the season and are 1-0 in NRFIs in 2023.
Last season Hunter Greene was 9-2 (82%) in home NRFIs, while Marcus Stroman, the NRFI, hit at a 92% rate in his road starts. Combined, that is a 75% implied probability hit rate.
Bet: 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-130)
Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins, 1:10 PM ET
Pablo Lopez vs Jesus Luzardo
Pablo Lopez had a solid first impression on Twins fans. In his team debut, Lopez pitched five shutout innings, giving up only two hits while striking out eight. Today he gets to face his former team, the Miami Marlins, so there will be some added motivation for him.
Lopez gets another favorable matchup as the Marlins have the highest K% (31.7%) in the MLB and rank in the bottom third in wOBA, WRC+, and team batting average.
On the flip side, Jesus Luzardo is also making his second start of the season. Luzardo picked up the first win of Miami’s season as he pitched five shutout innings while striking out four in his matchup with the New York Mets.
Last season Luzardo posted a very low HR/9 (0.90) rate and a BABIP of .253, which ranked among the best in baseball last season.
Bet: 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-150)
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, 2:05 PM ET
Grayson Rodriguez vs. Jacob deGrom
We are taking a shot in the dark with this game, as we don’t know what we will get from Grayson Rodriguez. The 23-year-old is making his MLB debut and is the No. 12 prospect in baseball per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.
Rodriguez competed for a job this spring but was sent down after a rough five starts. He allowed 11 earned runs in his final 10.1 innings of spring while posting an ERA of 7.04 in 15.1 innings. Despite his spring struggles, there is a lot of hype surrounding Grayson Rodriguez and big expectations from the Orioles Organization.
As for Jacob deGrom, we should all know what to expect from him this season. He was able to complete the NRFI in his first start against the Phillies but was roughed up after that. I will contribute the poor outing to new team/league jitters.
Tread lightly with this play.
Bet: 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-145)
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