MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (7/29)
Here are our top no runs first inning (NRFI) picks for Saturday’s slate of games.
MLB NRFI Odds & Picks
Boston Red Sox vs. San Francisco Giants
James Paxton vs. Ryan Walker
At the time of this write-up, there are conflicting reports about whether Ryan Walker or Anthony DeSclafani will start the game. From everything I am reading, it sounds like Walker will start as an opener then DeSclafani will come in for long relief duties.
Ryan Walker has started six this season and hasn’t allowed a first-inning run in three of those starts. For the season, Walker has a 2.70 ERA with 1.23 WHIP.
Walker will be going against one of the hottest teams in baseball, the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox have won 7 of their last 10 games, averaging 5.8 runs per game. Before the start of their series against the Giants, they took 2 of 3 from the Mets and just completed a two-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves.
The good news for Walker is the Red Sox go from one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks (Fenway Park) to a much more pitcher-friendly park, Oracle Park.
On the other side, the Red Sox will be pitching lefty James Paxton. Paxton is 6-2 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
There may not be a worse team in the MLB than the Giants when facing an LHP.
When facing a left-handed pitcher, the Giants rank in the bottom five in OBP, SLG, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+.
Let’s get a quick six out and cash the NRFI.
NRFI -120
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Aaron Nola vs. Quinn Priester
On the surface, this doesn’t look like a great matchup to bet on the NRFI. But with plus money on the table, this is excellent value here, and I will tell you why.
First, Aaron Nola. Nola is 9-6 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. While his ERA may be higher than we like, his xERA is down at 3.68, and his xFIP is 3.76. What does that mean? The short answer is that he is pitching better than his ERA indicates and may be getting a tad unlucky, and positive regression may be heading his way. At least, I hope.
The Pirates have the 11th highest K% (23.6%) against right-handed pitchers, ranking in the bottom 10 in OBP and BABIP.
Secondly, Quinn Priester is a perfect pitcher to back for the NRFI. Again, on the surface, it’s not pretty, as the rookie is 1-1 with a 9.28 ERA over his first two starts.
But most of the damage Priester has given up comes the second and third time through the lineup.
Quinn has only allowed one run on two hits over 17 at-bats when facing opponents for the first time. Opponents are batting .118 with an OBP of .167 the first time they see the rookie.
When you look at the 2nd and 3rd time through the order, it gets a bit messy. Over 26 at-bats, Priester has allowed nine runs on nine hits while opponents are batting .346.
I hope this trend continues with the Rookies as we try and take advantage of some plus money!
NRFI +110
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