Top MLB No Runs First Inning Odds (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/16)
We have been hot the last few weeks with our NRFI bets, and hopefully, we can keep it rolling today with another full slate of games.
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Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians – 7:10 ET
To begin this game, we have one of the breakout pitchers of the 2022 season, Triston McKenzie. While he is outperforming his peripherals and the estimators see him as more of a high three ERA pitcher, his flyball-heavy approach can make it tough to score in a pitcher’s park like Cleveland. The Twins have been a below-average offense in the last 30 days, and I believe that McKenzie can keep it rolling long enough to get through the first unscathed.
For the Twins, Bailey Ober takes the mound. In the last month, Cleveland, despite their winning ways, has a wRC+ of only 88, meaning that their success has mostly come from the pitching end of things. The top of their order is solid, but Ober, who was once a popular late-round stab, is talented enough to make it through. His game is command and control as he has a minuscule walk rate to go along with very few homers allowed. This type of skill set is one that makes it easy to avoid runs allowed as long as BABIP luck falls the right way. All we need is for it to make it through the first, and we hit the bet.
Pick: -135 on DraftKings
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox – 7:10 ET
On paper, this does not seem like the type of bet we would want to take. The concern is Jonathan Heasley, the Royals starter with an ERA over five. He does not strike out anywhere near enough hitters, walks entirely too many, and allows almost two homers per nine. So why are we betting on him? Well, the odds are the best cost-wise on the slate at -105, and while the Red Sox have a strong top half of the lineup, they still struggle to score overall. While I do believe that they will get to Heasley enough to win this game, we just need him to get past the top of the order once to make it work.
Wacha has been one of the most interesting pitchers in all of baseball in 2022. He has an ERA of 2.69 but has a FIP and xFIP of the mid-threes. However, his xERA is over four. While I will not be betting on him to repeat this performance in 2023, I’ll bet he can have another above-average start today. The Royals’ offense is the third worst in baseball over the last 30 days, and despite their youth movement, they truly struggle to put up a consistent offensive performance.
Pick: +100 on DraftKings
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