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MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Pitchers: Friday (7/7)

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We have had back-to-back days of getting to the window! Our payout was a little less because the Guardians couldn’t get a second run across to push their 1-1 tie after 5 innings. We still ended up winning three units, and that’s all that matters.

Let’s see if we can extend this streak another day and start the weekend off right.

Record

Parlay: 4-11 (-2.65 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-10 (-3.25 units)

Overall: -5.90 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at starting pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in overlooked or overrated pitchers. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher’s ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed.

Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today’s slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher’s value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.

Friday’s Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 Inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Our database has 170 starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched.

Pittsburgh Pirates (+164) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-210) First 5 innings

Rich Hill (PIT)

  • 83rd in FIP
  • 98th in ERA
  • 94th in K-BB%
  • 116th in LOB%
  • 130th in GB%
  • 72nd in HR/FB%
  • 94 innings pitched

Zac Gallen (ARI)

  • 5th in FIP
  • 28th in ERA
  • 16th in K-BB%
  • 93rd in LOB%
  • 120th in GB%
  • 17th in HR/FB%
  • 111.1 innings pitched

Zac Gallen is having an incredible year, ranking top 20 in FIP, K-BB% and HR/FB%. He gets a premier matchup against a Pirates team that is 27th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. He should be able to cruise through this anemic lineup. On the other hand, Rich Hill has produced average MLB numbers for the year and will face an average Arizona lineup.

Bet: Arizona (-210) First 5 innings

Kansas City Royals (+146) @ Cleveland Guardians (-184)

Daniel Lynch (KCR)

  • 114th in FIP
  • 80th in ERA
  • 139th in K-BB%
  • 92nd in LOB%
  • 122nd in GB%
  • 48th in HR/FB%
  • 41.1 innings pitched

Aaron Civale (CLE)

  • 71st in FIP
  • 22nd in ERA
  • 121st in K-BB%
  • 17th in LOB%
  • 81st in GB%
  • 16th in HR/FB%
  • 45.2 innings pitched

Aaron Civale does not have a mind-blowing advanced statistic profile. He does, however, excel in areas that matter. Civale ranks top 20 in LOB% and HR/FB%. He should get a solid boost facing a Royals lineup that ranks 29th vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Daniel Lynch has been a below-average pitcher over his 41.1 innings pitched. His inability to get strikeouts is concerning because Cleveland ranks first in K% over the last month at only 14.9%.

Bet: Cleveland (-184) First 5 innings

New York Mets @ San Diego Padres over 4.5 runs (+102) First 5 innings

Justin Verlander (NYM)

  • 65th in FIP
  • 54th in ERA
  • 77th in K-BB%
  • 67th in LOB%
  • 83rd in GB%
  • 64th in HR/FB%
  • 64 innings pitched

Yu Darvish (SDP)

  • 60th in FIP
  • 112th in ERA
  • 45th in K-BB%
  • 134th in LOB%
  • 62nd in GB%
  • 105th in HR/FB%
  • 80 innings pitched

We have two former superstar pitchers facing off tonight. Both are having average seasons, especially by their standards. This angle is simple; we have two pitchers whose name recognition is keeping this total lower than what it should be. Both offenses are ascending; both rank top five vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. I will bet that at least one breaks through, if not both.

Bet: over 4.5 runs (+102) First 5 innings

The Bets

ML Parlay

  • Arizona Diamondbacks (-210) First 5 innings
  • Cleveland Guardians (-184) First 5 innings
  • New York Mets/San Diego Padres over 4.5 runs (+102) First 5 innings

This gives us two pitchers facing abysmal offenses and two offenses that are being undervalued on a deflated total.

Parlay odds: +360 at 1.5 units

Check out our other best bets for Friday:

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>


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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!