MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers: Thursday (6/22)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jun 22, 2023

Welcome back! We have a smaller-than-normal slate today, but we can still find some value. We narrowly missed our regular parlay yesterday and unfortunately lost on one of our bigger favorites of the day. No worries though, let’s jump into today’s upcoming slate.

Record:

ML: 8-5 (+.24 units)
Parlay: 0-2 (-1 unit)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-2 (-.5 unit)
Overall: -1.26 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at Starting Pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will be ignoring arbitrary basic statistics, such as ERA, Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in pitchers that are overlooked or overrated. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed. Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more information about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary

Thursday’s Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

The rankings for each category are based on Starting Pitchers who have at least 30 innings pitched this season. The database will grow as the season goes and we will adjust accordingly. Let's dive in!

Atlanta Braves (-116) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-102)

Bryce Elder (ATL)

47th in FIP
83rd in K-BB%
8th in LOB%
7th in GB%
100th in HR/FB%
83 innings pitched

Aaron Nola (PHI)

68th in FIP
38th in K-BB%
146th in LOB%
107th in GB%
104th in HR/FB%
94.2 innings pitched

Both of these pitchers are similar in FIP, and neither has an elite FIP ranking. Elder does possess elite rankings in GB% and LOB%, whereas Nola is horrendous in those categories. If we aren’t going to have an elite K-BB% pitcher, Elder presents the next best combination.

Bet: Atlanta (-118) is the play.

Oakland Athletics (+154) @ Cleveland Guardians (-184)

JP Sears (OAK)

127th in FIP
40th in K-BB%
31st in LOB%
158th in GB%
105th in HR/FB%
76.1 innings pitched

Logan Allen (CLE)

48th in FIP
84th in K-BB%
48th in LOB%
70th in GB%
49th in HR/FB%
54.2 innings pitched

The key angle in this matchup is JP Sears’ inability to force ground balls. He is second-to-last in GB%, which in turn has inflated his HR/FB% greatly. This is why he is bottom-30 in FIP. Allen is slightly above average in several categories and is also balanced without any extreme negative outliers.

Bet: Cleveland (-184) is the play.

Arizona Diamondbacks (-148) @ Washington Nationals (+126)

Tommy Henry (ARI)

143rd in FIP
148th in K-BB%
46th in LOB%
97th in GB%
101st in HR/FB%
54.2 innings pitched

Jake Irvin (WAS)

132nd in FIP
156th in K-BB%
117th in LOB%
79th in GB%
36th in HR/FB%
36 innings pitched

These two pitchers are what we would target on a daily basis. Both are bottom-10 in K-BB%. Neither is elite in any one category, and both are abysmal in numerous.

Bet: Fade both pitchers and take the over of 9.5 (-114).

Pittsburgh Pirates (+114) @ Miami Marlins (-134)

Mitch Keller (PIT)

27th in FIP
15th in K-BB%
79th in LOB%
34th in GB%
86th in HR/FB%
92 innings pitched

Braxton Garrett (MIA)

22nd in FIP
8th in K-BB%
56th in LOB%
20th in GB%
128th in HR/FB%
66.2 innings pitched

Both of these pitchers are elite in K-BB%, as well as above average in GB%. That is a recipe for success. Their only weakness is HR/FB%. I am going to overlook that, since they are formidable in other areas.

Bet: Buy-in on both pitchers and go with the under of 7.5 (-115).

The Bets

ML Parlay

Atlanta (-116)
Cleveland (-184)

We have a short slate to pick from today and this gives us the most advantageous pitchers on our side.

Parlay odds: +187

Semi-Lottery Ticket Parlay

Atlanta (-116)
Cleveland (-184)
Arizona/Washington over 9.5 (-114)
Pittsburgh/Miami under 7.5 (-115)

This is exactly what it says, a semi-lottery ticket parlay. I wouldn't risk more than .25 units on it, or whatever you are comfortable with. This gives us two totals worth targeting, along with two pitchers that have clear identities.

Parlay odds: +908

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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