MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers: Tuesday (7/4)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jul 04, 2023

Happy 4th of July to you and your family!!!! We have a small slate today, but let’s make the best of it, as we have some extremely early games to start the holiday. Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Let’s dive in!!!

Record

Parlay: 2-10 (-6.33 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-8 (-2.25 units)

Overall: -8.58 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at Starting Pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in pitchers that are overlooked or overrated. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcher's ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed. Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to today's slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.

Tuesday's Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

The rankings for each category are based on the 168 Starting Pitchers who have at least 30 innings pitched this season. The database will grow as the season goes and we will adjust accordingly. Let's dive in!

St. Louis Cardinals (+132) @ Miami Marlins (-166) First 5 innings

Adam Wainwright (STL)

139th in FIP
167th in ERA
165th in K-BB%
159th in LOB%
131st in GB%
58th in HR/FB%
48.1 innings pitched

Jesus Luzardo (MIA)

18th in FIP
45th in ERA
13th in K-BB%
59th in LOB%
86th in GB%
66th in HR/FB%
97 innings pitched

The difference between these two pitchers is astronomical. Luzardo has an elite K-BB% and FIP. They are both on different trajectories in their career. St. Louis is 24th vs. LHP in wRC+ over the last month and will, unfortunately, need to provide Wainwright with an immense amount of run support. I just do not see that happening.

Bet: Miami (-166) First 5 innings is my favorite play of the day

Chicago Cubs (+104) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-132) First 5 innings

Kyle Hendricks (CHC)

41st in FIP
18th in ERA
145th in K-BB%
161st in LOB%
89th in GB%
2nd in HR/FB%
41.2 innings pitched

Wade Miley (MIL)

98th in FIP
23rd in ERA
132nd in K-BB%
15th in LOB%
100th in GB%
48th in HR/FB%
56.2 innings pitched

Hendricks is not the typical type of pitcher we want on our side. He is extremely dependent on limiting home runs via fly balls. The thing is, Miley has been extremely fortunate with his 23rd ranking in ERA. Miley will face a Cubs team that is seventh vs. LHP in wRC+ over the last month. In contrast, Hendricks will face a Brewers team that is 20th in wRC+ and 23rd in HR/FB% vs. RHP over the last month.

Bet: Chicago Cubs (+104) First 5 innings has plenty of value.

Philadelphia Phillies (+116) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-145) First 5 innings

Aaron Nola (PHI)

83rd in FIP
98th in ERA
51st in K-BB%
138th in LOB%
93rd in GB%
113th in HR/FB%
105.2 innings pitched

Zach Eflin (TBR)

16th in FIP
35th in ERA
19th in K-BB%
48th in LOB%
11th in GB%
96th in HR/FB%
90.1 innings pitched

Eflin is exactly the type of pitcher we look to back. He has a premier FIP, K-BB%, and GB%. He is also backed by an offense that is on fire. Tampa Bay is sixth vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Nola has just been an average pitcher this year, with nothing too special to write home about.

Bet: Tampa Bay (-145) First 5 innings

Los Angeles Angels (-104) @ San Diego Padres (-120) First 5 innings

Shohei Ohtani (LAA)

50th in FIP
22nd in ERA
10th in K-BB%
21st in LOB%
58th in GB%
126th in HR/FB%
95.1 innings pitched

Joe Musgrove (SDP)

47th in FIP
59th in ERA
65th in K-BB%
68th in LOB%
65th in GB%
53rd in HR/FB%
66.1 innings pitched

Ohtani has a solid advanced statistic profile, but it is not overwhelmingly spectacular. Ohtani is elite in K-BB% and LOB%. On the other hand, Musgrove is not elite in anything but is also not below average either. He is a serviceable starting pitcher. The only caveat is the Angels are second vs. RHP in wRC+ over the last month. I do not think Musgrove has the skills to limit them in this matchup.

Bet: Angels (-104) First 5 innings.

The Bets

ML Parlay

Miami (-166) First 5 innings
Tampa Bay (-145) First 5 innings

This gives us two above-average starters with offenses in optimal situations.

Parlay odds: +171 for 1.5 units

Lottery Ticket Parlay

Miami (-166) First 5 innings
Tampa Bay (-145) First 5 innings
Chicago Cubs (+104) First 5 innings
Los Angeles Angels (-104) First 5 innings

This gives us four above-average starters with offenses in situations they should be able to take advantage of the opposing starting pitcher.

Parlay odds: +977 for 0.5 unit

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Have a safe and fun holiday and good luck with your bets!!!

Check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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