MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers: Wednesday (7/5)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jul 05, 2023

Hope you had a fun and safe 4th of July. We are back at it again today with a solid slate ahead of us that presents great value. Letâ€™s see if we can get a winner to the window.

Record

Parlay: 2-11 (-7.83 units)
Lottery Ticket Parlay: 0-9 (-2.75 units)

Overall: -10.58 units

Welcome to a new daily article where we look at Starting Pitchers from an advanced statistic standpoint. We will ignore arbitrary basic statistics, such as Wins, Losses, Quality Starts, etc. Our key objective is to find value in overlooked or overrated pitchers. The main statistic we will look at is FIP, which is the best indicator of whether or not a pitcherâ€™s ERA is earned or unlucky. We will compare FIP and ERA to see if there are any biases in the market we can take advantage of. This gives us an advantage over the betting public and generally just makes us more informed. Here are the statistics that will give us a more nuanced approach to todayâ€™s slate.

Glossary:

K-BB%: Strikeout to Walk percentage (the higher, the better)
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcherâ€™s value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.

Wednesdayâ€™s Best MLB Predictions for Pitchers

Remember, we will be focusing on the First 5 Inning plays. This helps us remove the randomness of bullpens. Letâ€™s dive in!!!

Colorado Rockies (+164) @ Houston Astros (-210)

Chase Anderson (COL)

168th in FIP
166th in ERA
131st in K-BB%
113th in LOB%
131st in GB%
162nd in HR/FB%
40.2 innings pitched

J.P. France (HOU)

110th in FIP
27th in ERA
126th in K-BB%
8th in LOB%
36th in GB%
106th in HR/FB%
60.1 innings pitched

Anderson is having a horrendous year. He is bottom 10 in FIP and HR/FB%. He also will get little relief in this matchup, as Houston is 3rd vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. France is below average in FIP and K-BB%, but he does induce ground balls at a decent rate. He will face a putrid offense of late. Colorado is 27th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month.

Bet: Houston (-210) First 5 innings is my favorite play of the day

Oakland Athletics (+182) @ Detroit Tigers (-235)

Ken Waldichuk (OAK)

169th in FIP
156th in ERA
154th in K-BB%
69th in LOB%
134th in GB%
160th in HR/FB%
48.2 innings pitched

Eduardo Rodriguez (DET)

13th in FIP
2nd in ERA
34th in K-BB%
14th in LOB%
71st in GB%
40th in HR/FB%
67.2 innings pitched

Rodriguez has been one of the few bright spots for the Tigers this year. He has an elite FIP and is solid across the board with few weaknesses. Waldichuk is the complete opposite. He is dead last in FIP and his peripheral stats back that up. Rodriguez should cruise as Oakland is 30th vs LHP in wRC+ over the last month.

Bet: Detroit (-235) First 5 innings

Pittsburgh Pirates (+205) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-265)

Bobby Miller (LAD)

25th in FIP
81st in ERA
93rd in K-BB%
118th in LOB%
19th in GB%
8th in HR/FB%
38.1 innings pitched

Pittsburghâ€™s pitcher does not have enough innings to qualify for an advanced statistic profile. No need to worry though because this angle is directly tied to their offense of late. Miller will face off against an abysmal Pirates offense that ranks 30th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Miller has outperformed his ERA by a wide margin. His ability to limit home runs and force groundballs makes up for his below-average K-BB%.

Bet: Dodgers (-265) First 5 innings

Kansas City Royals (+215) @ Minnesota Twins (-280)

Pablo Lopez (MIN)

27th in FIP
82nd in ERA
10th in K-BB%
101st in LOB%
93rd in GB%
69th in HR/FB%
102 innings pitched

Kansas Cityâ€™s pitcher did not qualify for an advanced statistical profile but yet again the angle is geared towards their struggling offense. Lopez gets the benefit of facing a Royals offense that is 28th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Lopez has a premier K-BB% ranking and thus has outperformed his ERA by a considerable amount. He should be able to cruise through this Kansas City offense.

Bet: Minnesota (-280) First 5 innings

Texas Rangers (-108) @ Boston Red Sox (-116)

Jon Gray (TEX)

91st in FIP
30th in ERA
91st in K-BB%
26th in LOB%
118th in GB%
81st in HR/FB%
87 innings pitched

Brayan Bello (BOS)

47th in FIP
25th in ERA
81st in K-BB%
32nd in LOB%
5th in GB%
72nd in HR/FB%
73 innings pitched

The angle for this game is again geared toward the offenses. Bello is the superior pitcher, who is elite at forcing ground balls. The difference is Texas is crushing the ball lately and ranks 5th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Belloâ€™s average K-BB% could be concerning against this juggernaut offense. On the other hand, Boston is 29th vs RHP in wRC+ over the last month. Gray hasnâ€™t been stellar, but he is serviceable and can keep his team in the game.

Bet: Texas Rangers (-108) First 5 innings

ML Parlay

Houston (-210) First 5 innings
Los Angeles Dodgers (-265) First 5 innings

This gives us two serviceable pitchers facing horrendous offenses of late.

Parlay odds: +109 for 2 units

Semi-Lottery Parlay

Houston (-210) First 5 innings
Los Angeles Dodgers (-265) First 5 innings
Detroit (-235) First 5 innings
Minnesota (-280) First 5 innings
Texas (-108) First 5 innings

We get five solid starters facing off against the bottom 5 offenses of late.

Parlay odds: +680 for .5 unit

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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