MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/20)
Today’s Major League Baseball slate features 10 games. It’s a medium-sized slate, but a couple of bets stand out from the pack. Check out the top MLB picks & predictions below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Baltimore Orioles (-110) at Kansas City Royals (-106) | O/U 8.5 (-130/+106)
The pitching matchup might seem to favor the Royals at a glance. Seth Lugo has a 1.48 ERA in four starts spanning 24.1 innings, and Kyle Bradish has a 5.49 ERA in four starts lasting just 19.2 innings in 2026.
Lugo and Bradish could be two ships passing in the night. The former has been lucky this year, and the latter has been unlucky, based on their respective underlying data. Lugo’s 3.72 xERA, 3.33 xFIP and 3.62 SIERA, per FanGraphs, are markedly worse than his sparkling ERA. Bradish’s 3.06 xERA, 3.77 xFIP and 4.03 SIERA this year are much more flattering than his ERA.
Two of the three ERA estimators favor Lugo, but the gap isn’t large. Where there is a decided pitching advantage is in the bullpen. The Royals have MLB’s worst bullpen ERA (6.18), and the Orioles have MLB’s 11th-best bullpen ERA (3.57). Baltimore’s 3.53 xFIP for relievers is the fourth-best mark in the league, and Kansas City’s 4.78 xFIP is the seventh-worst in the Majors.
Neither offense is an imposing group. Ultimately, the Orioles have the biggest advantage in tonight’s contest, with a vastly superior bullpen. That advantage should be the difference and allow the Orioles to earn a road victory tonight.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-110)
Atlanta Braves (-162) at Washington Nationals (+136) | O/U 8.0 (-110/-110)
The Braves are third in wRC+ (121), and they lead the Majors in runs (122, 5.5 per game).
Atlanta has scored fewer than 4.5 runs - their team total tonight - in back-to-back games, scoring three runs on Saturday and four on Sunday against the Phillies. Atlanta had scored more than 4.5 runs in their three previous games and seven of their last nine games before the weekend.
In addition to Atlanta’s offense lighting up the scoreboard this season, their projected starting lineup has a track record of success against righties. Six of their projected starters have a 106 wRC+ or higher against righties since 2024, with five tallying at least a 116 wRC+ and three ripping off at least a 129 wRC+.
The offense has a mouthwatering matchup tonight. Jake Irvin has a 6.16 ERA, 5.09 xERA, 4.62 xFIP and 4.40 SIERA in four starts, allowing 13 runs in 19 innings. He’s ceded two, six, three and two runs in those starts.
Irvin will give way to one of the league’s worst bullpens. Washington’s relievers have the sixth-highest ERA (5.37) and are tied for the fourth-highest xFIP (4.80) this season. The combination of Irvin and Washington’s bullpen is unlikely to quiet Atlanta’s bats, and the Braves have the bonus of being on the road, so they can’t be short-changed at-bats in the ninth inning if they’re leading. The Braves should clear 4.5 runs.
Pick: Braves Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-104)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.