Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/21)
The MLB's rolling out a full 15-game slate today, providing us with a myriad of different ways to get some skin in the game. Here are my three favorite bets in the MLB today.
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Saturday's Best MLB Bets
Pittsburgh Pirates (-102) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-116) | 8.5 (-114/-106)
The action gets underway in Cin City this afternoon as the Pirates and Reds square off for a divisional matchup. This is an excellent pitching matchup between two up-and-coming hurlers, as Jared Jones and Rhett Lowder go toe-to-toe. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET from the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH.
Lowder has been lights out in four MLB starts, logging a 1.74 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 20.2 innings of work. He'll look to keep things rolling against a Pirates team that's trending downward, losing six of their last eight games. Pittsburgh's offense is still a below-average unit, registering a wRC+ of 89 over the last 14 days. I expect Lowder to turn in another solid outing in this contest.
Ultimately, I simply think Lowder will outduel Jones in this contest. Pittsburgh's pitcher has put together a solid rookie season with a 3.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, but he hasn't looked nearly as dominant as Lowder. Factor in that Cincinnati's bullpen (4.10 ERA) is better than Pittsburgh's (4.60 ERA), and we can see that the Reds have a sizable advantage in terms of pitching. I also believe their offense has a higher ceiling, so all signs point to the Reds taking care of business at home.
Bet: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (-116)
Minnesota Twins (-132) vs. Boston Red Sox (+112) | 8.0 (-102/-120)
The Twins picked up a much-needed 4-2 victory over the Red Sox last night, helping to keep a one-game cushion between them and the Tigers for the final A.L. wild card spot. The two American League squads are back at it this afternoon, and we have a pitching matchup between Pablo Lopez and Kutter Crawford. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA.
The Red Sox aren't officially eliminated from the playoffs yet, but they're sitting 5.0 games behind the Twins for the final wild card spot. It's pretty unlikely they'll make a push and narrow the gap. I'm backing the Twins in this contest, as they look to issue the Sox their seventh loss in their last nine games.
This one comes down to the head-to-head numbers with the pitchers. Lopez has carved up Boston in the past, limiting their roster to a slash line of .188/.220/.312 over 48 at-bats. Meanwhile, Minnesota's slashing .375/.444/.500 in 24 at-bats against Crawford (4.19 ERA). Also, the Red Sox are 0-6 in Crawford's last six outings, and he's taken the loss in each start. Give me the highly-motivated Twins on the moneyline.
Bet: Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-132)
Atlanta Braves (-260) vs. Miami Marlins (+215) | 7.5 (-124/+102)
The Marlins put a dent in the Braves' playoff chances last night, notching a 4-3 victory over their divisional foe. Luckily for Atlanta, New York (M) also lost last night, so the Braves are still just 2.0 games out of the wild card. Today's pitching matchup in the 305 pits Max Fried against Adam Oller. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET from loanDepot park in Miami, FL.
I expect a massive bounce-back performance from Atlanta today, so I'm willing to lay the juice along with the 1.5 runs with the Braves. They get an extremely favorable matchup against Miami's Oller, who brings in a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over six starts in 2024. In three September outings (15.1 IP), the right-hander's ERA has ballooned to 7.63. Now he's tasked with trying to slow down an Atlanta offense that's fifth in both wRC+ (115) and wOBA (.336) over the last 14 days.
On the flip side, Miami's offense, which is a bottom-tier unit, will be taking on Max Fried. The southpaw has held the Fish in check throughout his career, limiting their current roster to a slash line of .238/.304/.310 over 42 at-bats. Fried's also in sound form, logging three quality starts in his last four outings. Atlanta's bullpen is ranked third in ERA (3.33) and fifth in WHIP (1.19), so they should stifle Miami's offense this afternoon. Give me the Braves -1.5.
Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-152)