MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/17)
Let’s discuss some of today’s baseball games on the schedule and share with you our MLB best bets.
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Thursday's MLB Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Angels (+130) at Texas Rangers (-135) | O/U 9.5 (+102/-122)
This series between the Angels and Rangers has been quiet offensively, but that could change in this pitching matchup.
Kumar Rocker has been rocked in two of his three starts and hasn't made it out of the fourth inning in two of them. His sinker is his main pitch, but he has trouble with it as batters are hitting .391 with a .478 slugging percentage. Now he'll face an Angels lineup that has delivered a ton of power to start the season, with the second-most home runs (30) and ranking second in slugging (.444).
Jack Kochanowicz has regressed with each start and is coming off an outing where he allowed six earned runs in 4.2 innings against Houston. He's another pitcher who dominantly throws sinkers that live dangerously at the heart of the plate. Opponents have a .405 slugging percentage against the pitch and just an 8.7% whiff rate.
Pick: Over 9.5 Runs (+102)
New York Yankees (-110) at Tampa Bay Rays (-110) | O/U 9.0 (-102/-118)
There's a lot of potential with Will Warren. When he has a handle on his breaking pitches, he gets swings and misses and piles up the strikeouts. The problem is that sometimes he can't keep pitches close enough to the strike zone. Walks then become a problem, and he starts throwing them over the plate.
Tampa Bay’s lineup is not disciplined, which will help him. They are 21st in first-pitch swing rate (331%), 20th in chase rate (28.8%) and 20th in walk rate (8.7%).
This could be an instance where he isn't pitching his best, and still gets the better of this Rays lineup. It also helps that even though this is a road game for the Yankees, it is being played at their spring training facility, where the Rays are playing home games this season.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-110)
Cleveland Guardians (-108) at Baltimore Orioles (-112) | O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)
The surface numbers do not look good for Tanner Bibee, but much of that stems from his outing against the Angels, where he allowed seven earned runs in four innings. In the other two starts, he's collectively pitched 10.1 scoreless innings. His biggest problem this season has been control. In his last start, Bibee allowed four walks in 4.2 innings. Of his 96 pitches, 41 were called balls. He had 63 total pitches out of the strike zone.
The Orioles don't walk much, as they are 27th in walk rate (7.4%), but they don't chase bad pitches, and Bibee isn't disguising his pitches well enough to fool that lineup. If he tries to get out of trouble by throwing over the plate, the Orioles will take advantage, thanks to being fifth in barrel rate (10.3%) and fourth in hard-hit rate (45.1%).
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-112)