MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/14)
I've got two MLB picks for Tuesday evening, where I'll be backing a couple of the best southpaws over the past decade or so against two starters I want absolutely no part of at the moment. Both of my plays got home last Tuesday. Let's see if we can stay hot and do it again.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
2026 Record : 3-1 (+2.0 units)
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
We've got a matchup between top-of-the-rotation struggling southpaws on Tuesday night, with Framber Valdez taking the mound against Cole Ragans. I'm shocked Ragans is even able to make his start tonight, as he took a Jose Ramirez line drive to his pitching hand in the first inning of his last start, resulting in a left thumb contusion. He proceeded to walk the next batter and give up a two-run double before exiting the game.
Looking under the hood, Ragans’ underlying metrics are very concerning. He'll always be a big swing-and-miss pitcher, ranking above the 80th percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate, but he doesn't grade out better than the 61st percentile in any other advanced analytical statistic. His breaking ball run value ranks in the 36th percentile, his fastball run value is in the 27th percentile and his offspeed run value grades out pretty dreadfully in the third percentile.
Ragains is getting hit hard, with a fourth percentile barrel rate of 20%, which is a big problem considering his groundball rate of 32% sits in the 18th percentile. He’s also walking way too many batters, with a walk rate of 13% that grades out in the bottom quartile of all pitchers. He's currently a shadow of his breakout 2024 self. The fact that he took a line drive to his pitching hand in his last start certainly won't help.
Valdez’s 4.76 ERA is much more a product of one blow-up performance in his last start against a surprisingly competitive Twins team, with underlying metrics that suggest that his season-long numbers are going to be just fine. For starters, Valdez’s offspeed has been among the best in the MLB, grading out in the 97th percentile. He still has his patented ability to induce ground balls, with an 82nd percentile groundball rate of 55%. He also grades out above the 80th percentile in chase rate and barrel rate. He's also kept the ball in the strike zone, with a 6.4% walk rate that puts him among the top quartile of all pitchers. I give Valdez a decisive edge over Ragans in this one.
Regarding bullpens, Kansas City's has been brutal in the early going. The Royals’ bullpen currently grades out as the fourth-worst unit in the league with a sky-high ERA of 5.47 and a WHIP of 1.55. On the other hand, Detroit ranks in the top 10 with a team bullpen ERA of 3.24. While the Royals’ offense has a splits advantage with right-handed sluggers Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez, they've also been far less productive as a team this season than the Tigers.
Detroit ranks in the top 10 in terms of batting average, on-base percentage (OBP) and OPS, with a top-half slugging rate, while the Royals rank 24th or worse in batting average, slugging rate and OPS. Put it all together, and I give Detroit the starting pitching advantage, the bullpen advantage and the offensive advantage. Add in the fact that Ragans could very well have some lingering issues stemming from his thumb contusion, and I love taking the Tigers with home-field advantage at this price.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-116 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Brady Singer gets the start for Cincinnati on Tuesday evening, with underlying metrics that suggest that his bloated ERA of 7.71 is actually extremely indicative of his performance. Singer grades out below the seventh percentile in all of the following categories:
- Hard-hit rate
- Average exit velocity
- xBA
- xERA
- Fastball run value
- Overall pitching run value
Singer was at his best in the early 2020s when he was inducing ground balls at an incredibly high clip, but he's seen that rate regress much closer to league average this season. Really, the only thing that he does well is keep the ball in the strike zone, although those numbers suggest he might be better off missing the zone from time to time. I want no part of backing Singer in any meaningful way, especially in an extremely friendly hitting environment like Great American Ball Park.
The Giants will counter with lefty Robbie Ray, who is off to what seems to be another very productive season. Ray holds a sparkling 2.08 ERA and a very impressive 0.98 WHIP, with all the underlying metrics to back it up. Ray grades above the 70th percentile in the following categories:
- Hard-hit rate
- Whiff rate
- Chase rate
- Average exit velocity
- xBA
Ray’s strikeout rate sits in the third of all pitchers, and his fastball run value and overall pitching run value both sit above the 94th percentile. Ray has also posted those numbers against some pretty prolific offenses, facing the Yankees, Mets and Phillies in his first three starts, making his performances even more impressive.
While the Giants’ lineup hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, they've been slightly better than a really abysmal Reds offense, which currently ranks in the bottom four in terms of batting average, slugging rate, OBP and OPS. The Giants will get the added boost of a splits advantage for their lefty bats like Luis Arraez, Rafael Devers and Jung Hoo Lee.
Robbie Ray has dominated both right- and left-handed bats throughout his career, so I'm not worried about him taking on a righty-heavy Reds lineup. He'll also get to face Elly De La Cruz in the right-handed batter’s box, where he has struggled against lefties for most of his career.
Finally, while the Reds’ bullpen has been the better unit in the early going, I'm not sure that will last over the course of the season, as I anticipate that the Giants’ bullpen will resemble the one that finished fourth in bullpen ERA in 2025. Give me the Giants on the Moneyline in this one as the team with the better offense and the clear starting pitching advantage.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (-105 at Caesars Sportsbook)