MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/21)
I'm not much of a totals bettor, and when I do bet totals I'm almost always inclined to lean to the Under, but I've got 2 totals on my card tonight - one Over and one Under. The Over game features one of the sneakily best offenses in baseball in a hitter's park with two pitchers I absolutely do not trust on the mound. The Under game has two of the league's best southpaws squaring off, though one of them has drastically underperformed to begin the season. Let's keep things rolling and get two more to the window tonight.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
2026 Record (4-2; +1.95u) | Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels will start third-year righty Jack Kochanowicz, and although his 3.47 ERA and 1.24 WHIP look just fine on paper, the under the hood metrics are much more concerning. For starters, Jack's xERA of 5.07 suggests that he's been extremely lucky in the early part of 2026, and his xBA of 0.249 ranks in the bottom half of baseball. He doesn't miss very many bats combining a 48th percentile whiff rate with a 21st percentile chase rate and 26th percentile strikeout rate. He's also been hit really hard this year, evident by a 43rd percentile average exit velocity and 28th percentile barrel rate. Finally, he's sporting a sky-high walk rate of 15.2%. Simply put, Jack has given up a ton of hard contact this season and has been on the receiving end of some really great BABIP luck.
The Blue Jays are going to counter with Patrick Corbin, who is somehow still throwing pitches in an MLB uniform and is about 8 or 9 seasons removed from his best years as a big leaguer. Quite literally the only thing Corbin does well is avoid the free pass, though you might argue that he could actually benefit from staying out of the strike zone from time to time. Corbin's 4.66 ERA is a full three runs lower than his 3rd percentile xERA of 7.94, and he grades out in the bottom quartile of all pitchers in all of the following categories: average exit velocity, chase rate, ground ball rate, xBA, and fast ball velocity. He grades out below league average in terms of whiff rate, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate. Additionally, his fastball pitching run value ranks in the 26th percentile. Corbin is also much worse against right-handed batters, which is really bad news against an Angels lineup that features three right-handed sluggers in Mike Trout, Jo Adell, and Jorge Soler with their first four batters. We saw these three go back-to-back-to-back against Ryan Weathers in the first inning last week, and I wouldn't bat an eyelash if they do it again tonight.
Overall, the Angels' offense has been extremely productive, ranking top-10 in terms of OBP, OPS, and SLG with the 2nd-most HRs and most walks drawn in the MLB. While the Blue Jays have been off to a much slower start after their trip to the World Series last season, they still hit at the 8th-highest AVG in the league and should be able to put up runs of their own. Add in the fact that both bullpens rank bottom-11 in terms of both ERA and WHIP, and Angels stadium ranks T-7th since 2024 in offensive HR rate, and I think we're in for some serious fireworks in this game. Give me o9.5 at even money.
Pick: Over 9.5 Runs (+100)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
A pair of southpaws will face off on the North side of Chicago this evening, with Shota Imanaga getting the start for the Cubs against Jesus Luzardo of the Phillies. Shota has picked up right where he left off from his previous seasons, sporting a 2.45 ERA with a miniscule WHIP of 0.77. His 2.55 xERA and 0.191 xBA tell us that his results have been pretty on par with expectation, and he grades out above the 85th percentile in both of those categories. Shota's swing-and-iss stuff has been incredible this year, as he grades out in the 87th percentile in terms of whiff rate and above the 97th percentile in terms of strikeout rate and chase rate. All of his pitching run values grade out well above league average, including a 78th percentile offspeed value, a 98th percentile fastball run value, and a 96th percentile overall pitching run value, and his 6.1% walk rate is very manageable in the 82nd percentile.
Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo and his 7.94 ERA are absolutely due for some positive regression. For starters, his xERA is a full four runs lower at 3.59, ranking in the 61st percentile, and the rest of his metrics back that up. Luzardo ranks in the 60th percentile in barrel rate, ranks in the 78th percentile in both ground ball rate and hard-hit rate, and ranks above the 80th percentile in all of the following categories: average exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate. The stuff has been there for Luzardo, the results just seem to be lagging behind in the early going and I trust him to turn it around over the course of the season.
The Phillies offense in particular has been really struggling, ranking in the bottom-7 in terms of AVG, OPS, OBP, SLG, and walks drawn. They also won't be helped by the fact that Shota should be able to neutralize the lefty sluggers at the top of their order in Schwarber and Harper. I trust each of these bullpens to take care of business when handed the ball, as both rank in the top half of baseball in both bullpen ERA and WHIP. Lastly, Wrigley Field has ranked 27th overall in terms of overall offensive ballpark factors and grades out below league average in terms of HR factor. It also doesn't seem like we're in for any sort of crazy outwardly blowing wind this evening. I'll take the under 8.5 in this game.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-115)