MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/7)
We've got a full slate of baseball games today, which includes a few late-afternoon games and runs all the way through Giants versus Phillies in the nightcap. I've got two MLB picks & predictions to bring to the plate today, one of which involves a weather-impacted total in one of the afternoon games and the other involves a depressed Moneyline price on an American League playoff contender.
Keep in mind that it's still early, and we have an essentially meaningless 2026 sample size, so I'm keeping that in mind and referring to prior performances as much as I can. When adjustments need to be made, those will be incorporated as the sample size grows in 2026. Without further ado, here are my best bets for Tuesday's MLB action.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Offense has been hard to come by at Progressive Field in Cleveland in the early going, with only one Guardians home game going over the total so far. Wednesday afternoon's forecast leads me to believe that trend is going to continue, with a projected high of 37 degrees and double-digit miles per hour (MPH) wind blowing directly in from center field.
The pitching matchup also doesn't cater to offensive production, as both teams will be sending out some pretty good arms. The Guardians are trotting Gavin Williams to the mound, fresh off a really impressive seven-inning, two-hit and zero-earned run performance against the Dodgers in a much more friendly hitting environment. Williams had a very strong 2025 campaign, racking up 12 wins to the tune of a 3.06 ERA.
While it's still very early and the sample size is incredibly small, Williams’ underlying metrics suggest he's going to be even better this season. Williams ranks in the top third of all qualified pitchers in terms of xERA, average exit velocity, chase rate and groundball rate. He also ranks in the top 20th percentile in xBA, whiff rate, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
When Williams exits the game, he'll be handing the ball to one of the best bullpens in baseball, as the Guardians’ bullpen finished 2025 with the third-lowest ERA and tied for the second-most saves in the league.
Noah Cameron will get the start for the Royals, looking to build off of what was a remarkably impressive debut season in 2025. Cameron was 9-7 with a sub-3.00 ERA and a very respectable WHIP of 1.10 last season, excelling at avoiding hard contact. Cameron ranked in the 73rd percentile in terms of hard-hit rate and ranked in the top 20th percentile of all pitchers in terms of average exit velocity and barrel rate.
It could be argued that Cameron’s breaking pitches are actually the best in the entire league as well, as Cameron sat in the 99th percentile in terms of run value on his breaking pitches. The Royals’ bullpen was also nearly as dominant as Cleveland's in 2025, ranking seventh in overall ERA and matching their saves total with 47.
Offensively, Cleveland has really been struggling so far, which is almost certainly related to the aforementioned early spring weather conditions in Cleveland. The Guardians rank in the bottom seven in on-base percentage (OBP), OPS and slugging rate. They also own the second-worst batting average.
The Royals have gotten off to a better start, ranking in the top half of the sport in most offensive metrics, though I do view them as a more middling offensive team. As the season plays out, I expect them to regress slightly to be more in line with their offensive production of last season, where they ranked somewhere between 10 and 20 in most categories.
Lastly, Progressive Field has never really been regarded as a hitters’ park, as it ranks 21st in overall offensive ballpark factors since 2024. Combining that with the weather, the starting pitching, the bullpens and both offenses, we're in for another low-scoring game in Cleveland. I'll take this game to stay under the very low total of seven runs.
Pick: Under 7.0 Runs (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Lefty Trevor Rogers is still seemingly flying under the radar as one of the best pitchers in the game. Since the beginning of 2025, Rogers has allowed more than two earned runs in just two starts and more than three earned runs in just one. He finished 2025 with an impeccable ERA and WHIP of 1.81 and 0.90, respectively, which are supported by his underlying metrics.
Rogers finished in the top third of all pitchers in xERA, xBA, chase rate, walk rate and groundball rate, and finished above the 60th percentile in strikeout rate and barrel rate. His overall pitching run value graded out in the 97th percentile, with a fastball run value in the 96th percentile and an offspeed run value in the 94th percentile.
Rogers’ breaking stuff wasn't too shabby either, falling just below the 70th percentile. While the White Sox do seem to be improved from their previous few seasons, they still currently sit in the bottom six in batting average, OBP, OPS and slugging rate.
Rogers has also dominated left-handed bats as a lefty himself, which is a nice advantage to have against the left-handed hitting power threats in the White Sox lineup, like Colson Montgomery and Munetaka Murakami.
I do not have the same sentiments for White Sox righty Shane Smith, who has surrendered at least three earned runs in each of his starts this season and is fresh off allowing seven earned runs to the Marlins. The run values on his pitches are extremely concerning, ranking in just the second percentile in overall pitching run value, in the 20th percentile in fastball run value, in the second percentile in offspeed run value and in the first percentile in his breaking run value.
Smith hasn't been missing bats, grading out in the bottom 10th percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate. The fact that his xERA and xBA both grade out in the bottom 30th percentile tells us that he hasn't been all that unlucky. Although he did make the All-Star game as a rookie in 2025 as the White Sox’s lone representative, there were some concerns under the hood.
Smith walked far too many batters with a walk rate approaching 10%, and he was hit pretty hard, ranking in the bottom quartile of pitchers in terms of hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. It's early, but it seems like teams have been able to adjust to Smith after he burst onto the scene as a rookie last season.
The Orioles have the clear offensive advantage in this series as well, currently ranking in the top half of the league in terms of batting average, OBP and OPS. I see advantages all around for the Orioles in this game, especially considering how lights-out Rogers has been for the course of a full season.
I also think that we're getting some value on the Moneyline because of a somewhat slow start for the Orioles and the fact that the White Sox did just sweep the defending American League champs, although there is something seriously awry with that Toronto ballclub right now.
I think this game should be priced much closer to -160, so I'll take -135 odds on the Orioles Moneyline as a gift. Rogers will outduel Smith, and I trust the Orioles’ offense to put up enough runs to win this one as the decisively better unit.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-135 at BetMGM)