MLB Picks & Predictions: Dodgers vs. Brewers (Sunday)
The National League Championship Series (NLCS) gets underway today as the Los Angeles Dodgers take on the Milwaukee Brewers in a rematch of last year's NLCS. That, of course, does not make the Dodgers the best bet for this game. Yes, they swept the Brewers last year, but that was then. After reviewing the trends, stats and odds for this game, here are my best MLB picks for Game 1 of the NLCS.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
Under 6.5 Runs (-140)
Tarik Skubal won the past two American League Cy Young Awards as the league's best pitcher, prompting the Dodgers to acquire him midseason. After a few uneven starts - including an August 16th loss to Milwaukee - he found his form in September, posting a 2.25 ERA and winning his final four starts.
Jacob Misiorowski is the National League Cy Young favorite after leading the league with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts. After allowing five runs to the Cubs, he closed September with three shutouts and a 2.28 ERA.
Skubal had a better last start against the Braves, going six innings and allowing two hits and one run (on a home run). Misiorowski went just four innings, giving up four hits and two runs. But when your bullpen is pitching as well as Milwaukee's (3.40 ERA, third-best in baseball), a short leash is understandable.
During the National League Division Series (NLDS), the Brewers’ bullpen posted a 0.47 ERA in 19 innings, allowing only one earned run.
It's a low total; recent playoff trends, the pitching matchup and postseason batting averages (.250 Brewers; .203 Dodgers) support the under.
First Five Innings Alt Under 2.5 Runs (+122)
That is an incredibly low first five innings total, but it is entirely possible in today's matchup. Tarik Skubal has held the Brewers’ lineup to a .209 batting average in 91 at-bats. In his August start against them, he surrendered one earned run (two total). Jacob Misiorowski allowed one earned run in his August start versus the Dodgers.
Both lasted six innings in their respective starts. With how these teams are hitting in the postseason, these pitchers could keep the total under 2.5 runs in the first five innings.
Dodgers Alt +1.5 (-280)
I'm not crazy about this market because of the price. But with the pitchers taking the mound to start the day, this game is likely to be decided by a single run.
I'd lean toward the Brewers scoring that run late against the Dodgers’ bullpen (2.45 ERA in the NLDS). Hence, taking the Dodgers at an alt run line of +1.5.