MLB Picks & Predictions: Guardians vs. Rays (Monday)
Since the Cleveland Guardians jumped out to a 2-1 lead in the American League Championship Series (ALCS), alternating wins through three games with the Tampa Bay Rays, Tampa Bay has won back-to-back games. The Rays can punch their ticket to the World Series with a win tonight. Check out our top MLB picks & predictions below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Cleveland Guardians (+124) at Rays (-146) | O/U 6.5 (-115/-105)
The Guardians haven’t announced a starter and are working through a pitching plan.
The Guardians are mapping out their Game 6 pitching plan, but Gavin Williams is not an option to start on short rest, Stephen Vogt said.
- Tim Stebbins (@tim_stebbins) October 19, 2026
Tanner Bibee and Joey Cantillo are candidates to open or work as bulk relievers. According to FanGraphs, Bibee had a 4.36 ERA, 4.33 xERA, 4.47 xFIP and 4.46 SIERA in 33 starts in the regular season. Bibee has made only one playoff appearance, recording only one out on a strikeout but walking the other two batters he faced.
Cantillo had a 3.62 ERA, 3.99 xERA, 4.10 xFIP and 4.24 SIERA in 30 starts and three relief appearances in the regular season. The lefty hasn’t been sharp in three playoff relief appearances. His 2.70 ERA across 3.1 innings doesn’t align with his 5.50 xFIP and 7.35 SIERA. Cantillo has walked four of 15 batters and struck out just two in the playoffs.
Neither option is an appealing starter. Their bullpen has a 2.67 ERA, 2.64 xERA and 3.03 ERA in 54 innings in the playoffs. Sadly for them, Parker Messick lasted only two innings last night, putting a lot on the bullpen’s plate.
In an all-hands-on-deck game, the Guardians will undoubtedly empty the tank. They might be running on fumes, though.
On the other side, Freddy Peralta will start. He was dreadful for the Mets. The Rays were rewarded for gambling on him. Peralta had a 3.25 ERA, 3.74 xERA, 4.62 xFIP and 4.43 SIERA in 10 starts for the Rays in the regular season.
Peralta has a 0.79 ERA, 5.37 xFIP and 4.89 SIERA in two starts and one relief appearance in the playoffs. Clearly, he’s enjoyed some good fortune. Nevertheless, Peralta is in good form.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen also has a 3.42 ERA, 3.64 xERA and 2.80 xFIP in the playoffs. They should have a pitching advantage tonight.
The Guardians have had an offensive advantage in the playoffs overall, with an 85 wRC+ compared to the Rays’ 74 wRC+ mark. Tampa Bay has a 79 wRC+ versus Cleveland’s 77 wRC+ in the ALCS.
Tampa Bay should also have an offensive advantage from playing at home. The Guardians posted only a 94 wRC+ on the road in the regular season, while the Rays posted a 108 wRC+ at home.
The Rays are priced as favorites, but the -146 Moneyline isn’t too chalky for my taste.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (-146)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.