MLB Picks & Predictions: Guardians vs. Rays (Monday)
The Cleveland Guardians visit the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday, October 12, for an MLB playoff matchup beginning at 8 p.m. ET. Foster Griffin takes the mound for Cleveland opposite Drew Rasmussen, with Tampa Bay listed as a -172 moneyline favorite and the over/under set at 6.5 runs. Our Guardians vs. Rays best bets and predictions examine the pitching matchup and betting odds to highlight the top wagers to consider for tonight's postseason action.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions: Guardians vs. Rays
Monday’s Major League Baseball playoff action begins at 5:00 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series (NLCS) first, and the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Cleveland Guardians in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series (ALCS) in the night contest, starting at 8:00 p.m. ET. Check out our top MLB picks & predictions below for Guardians vs. Rays.
Cleveland Guardians (+142) at Rays (-170) | O/U 7.0 (+102/-121)
The pitching matchup and offensive matchups are lopsided in favor of the Rays. Foster Griffin was rock-solid, albeit lucky, in 22 starts for the Nationals, recording a 3.06 ERA, which didn’t align with his 4.14 xERA, 3.72 xFIP and 3.80 SIERA.
The other shoe didn’t just drop for Griffin, either. Instead of pitching to his less-impressive underlying data, Griffin had a 5.19 ERA, 4.95 xERA, 3.91 xFIP, and 4.11 SIERA in nine starts for the Guardians.
To the lefty’s credit, he was sharp in a 2.2-inning relief appearance in the playoffs, allowing only one run on two hits, one hit batter and seven strikeouts.
Cleveland’s bullpen is also an asset. They had a 3.54 ERA in the regular season and have a 2.67 ERA in the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s bullpen had a 3.99 ERA in the regular season, but they’ve kicked it up a notch in the playoffs, with a blistering 1.69 ERA in 10.2 innings.
Tampa Bay has a decided advantage at starting pitcher, though. In 30 regular-season starts spanning 172 innings, Drew Rasmussen recorded the following numbers:
- 2.67 ERA
- 3.05 xERA
- 3.21 xFIP
- 3.60 SIERA
- 0.91 WHIP
- 4.8% walk rate
- 26% strikeout rate
- 11.3% SwStr%
- 28% CSW%
- 110 stuff+
- 106 location+
- 114 pitching+
Rasmussen was actually sharper on the road than at home. That said, in 15 home starts spanning 84.2 innings, Rasmussen had a 2.87 ERA, 3.20 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 5.4% walk rate and 25.6% strikeout rate. Those numbers are nothing to sneeze at.
The Rays also have arguably a better offense. Tampa Bay had a 90 wRC+ against lefties in the regular season, which was lower than Cleveland’s 99 wRC+ against righties. However, the Guardians had a 94 wRC+ on the road, and the Rays had a 108 wRC+ at home.
Tampa Bay’s -170 Moneyline is too chalky for my taste, but it’s justified. Instead, laying 1.5 runs and getting +134 odds is more exciting.
Pick: Rays -1.5 (+134)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.