MLB Picks & Predictions: Monday (10/12)
Monday’s Major League Baseball playoff action begins at 5:00 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series (NLCS) first, and the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Cleveland Guardians in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series (ALCS) in the night contest, starting at 8:00 p.m. ET. Check out our top MLB picks & predictions below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) at Brewers (+112) | O/U 7.0 (EVEN/-118)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is toeing the slab for the Dodgers, and Logan Henderson is getting the ball for the Brewers. Game 1 of the NLCS was a pitcher’s duel, with the Brewers edging out the Dodgers 2-1.
It could be another impressive showing from the pitchers tonight. According to FanGraphs, Yamamoto posted the following stats in 28 regular-season starts:
- 2.53 ERA
- 2.94 xERA
- 3.28 xFIP
- 3.40 SIERA
- 0.87 WHIP
- 5.9% walk rate
- 25.7% strikeout rate
- 12.3% SwStr%
- 28.8% CSW%
- 102 stuff+
- 107 location+
- 110 pitching+
The 28-year-old righty thrived on the road. In 12 road starts spanning 81.1 innings, he had a 1.77 ERA, 3.34 xFIP, 0.82 WHIP, 5.9% walk rate and 24.8% strikeout rate. Yamamoto allowed three runs or fewer in all of his road starts, and allowed one or fewer in eight of them.
Yamamoto also allowed only one run on four hits, one walk and 10 strikeouts in seven innings in his only postseason start this season. Los Angeles also has a decent bullpen behind him, with a 3.74 ERA in the regular season and a 2.45 ERA in the playoffs.
Henderson isn’t a slouch on the other side. He’s not an innings eater, but he whipped up the following marks in 18 regular-season starts totaling 98.1 innings:
- 2.47 ERA
- 2.73 xERA
- 3.30 xFIP
- 3.14 SIERA
- 0.84 WHIP
- 5.1% walk rate
- 29.6% strikeout rate
- 12.4% SwStr%
- 27.5% CSW%
- 102 stuff+
- 108 location+
- 107 pitching+
Henderson was a bit shaky in his only playoff start, allowing two runs, two hits and three walks, while also hitting a batter. He tallied four strikeouts in five innings.
Fortunately, Henderson is getting the ball at home, where he was lights out in the regular season. In eight home starts spanning 44 innings, Henderson had a 1.84 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, 0.77 WHIP, 4.9% walk rate and 30.9% strikeout rate.
Moreover, while Los Angeles’ bullpen is good, Milwaukee’s is sensational. They had a 3.40 ERA in the regular season and have a 0.47 ERA in the playoffs.
The pitchers should put on a show and keep the game under seven runs today.
Pick: Under 7.0 Runs (-118)
Cleveland Guardians (+142) at Rays (-170) | O/U 7.0 (+102/-121)
The pitching matchup and offensive matchups are lopsided in favor of the Rays. Foster Griffin was rock-solid, albeit lucky, in 22 starts for the Nationals, recording a 3.06 ERA, which didn’t align with his 4.14 xERA, 3.72 xFIP and 3.80 SIERA.
The other shoe didn’t just drop for Griffin, either. Instead of pitching to his less-impressive underlying data, Griffin had a 5.19 ERA, 4.95 xERA, 3.91 xFIP, and 4.11 SIERA in nine starts for the Guardians.
To the lefty’s credit, he was sharp in a 2.2-inning relief appearance in the playoffs, allowing only one run on two hits, one hit batter and seven strikeouts.
Cleveland’s bullpen is also an asset. They had a 3.54 ERA in the regular season and have a 2.67 ERA in the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s bullpen had a 3.99 ERA in the regular season, but they’ve kicked it up a notch in the playoffs, with a blistering 1.69 ERA in 10.2 innings.
Tampa Bay has a decided advantage at starting pitcher, though. In 30 regular-season starts spanning 172 innings, Drew Rasmussen recorded the following numbers:
- 2.67 ERA
- 3.05 xERA
- 3.21 xFIP
- 3.60 SIERA
- 0.91 WHIP
- 4.8% walk rate
- 26% strikeout rate
- 11.3% SwStr%
- 28% CSW%
- 110 stuff+
- 106 location+
- 114 pitching+
Rasmussen was actually sharper on the road than at home. That said, in 15 home starts spanning 84.2 innings, Rasmussen had a 2.87 ERA, 3.20 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 5.4% walk rate and 25.6% strikeout rate. Those numbers are nothing to sneeze at.
The Rays also have arguably a better offense. Tampa Bay had a 90 wRC+ against lefties in the regular season, which was lower than Cleveland’s 99 wRC+ against righties. However, the Guardians had a 94 wRC+ on the road, and the Rays had a 108 wRC+ at home.
Tampa Bay’s -170 Moneyline is too chalky for my taste, but it’s justified. Instead, laying 1.5 runs and getting +134 odds is more exciting.
Pick: Rays -1.5 (+134)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.