MLB Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/25)
The Memorial Day Major League Baseball slate begins in the afternoon and stretches through the night, featuring 13 games. An afternoon contest’s run line is one of today’s most appealing bets. A night contest’s over is the other most alluring bet on the MLB slate. Check out our top MLB picks & predictions below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
St. Louis Cardinals (+184) at Milwaukee Brewers (-220) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
The Brewers are rightfully priced as commanding Moneyline favorites. Jacob Misiorowski is pitching at an elite level in his sophomore campaign.
According to FanGraphs, the righty with the triple-digit heater has posted the following numbers in 10 starts spanning 57 innings:
- 4 wins
- 5 quality starts
- 1.89 ERA
- 2.30 xERA
- 2.22 xFIP
- 2.21 SIERA
- 0.88 WHIP
- 8% walk rate
- 39.3% strikeout rate
- 17.3% SwStr%
- 35.1% CSW%
Misiorowski is also a beast at home. In 72 innings at home since last season, he’s twirled a 2.75 ERA, 2.77 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 7.9% walk rate and 36.6% strikeout rate.
Milwaukee’s ace is also backed by one of MLB’s best bullpens. The Brewers have the fourth-lowest bullpen ERA (3.31) this year.
Predictably, Matthew Liberatore’s numbers can’t compete with Misiorowski’s. The lefty has recorded the following mediocre numbers in 10 starts spanning 51.2 innings this year:
- 2 wins
- 3 quality starts
- 4.70 ERA
- 5.64 xERA
- 4.26 xFIP
- 4.44 SIERA
- 1.55 WHIP
- 8.8% walk rate
- 19% strikeout rate
- 9.8% SwStr%
- 25.7% CSW%
The Brewers also have a decided bullpen advantage. The Cardinals are 21st in bullpen ERA (4.20).
Milwaukee’s 82 wRC+ versus lefties compared to 106 wRC+ against righties this year would be alarming if not for the decided pitching advantage for the hosts. Lefty-killer Andrew Vaughn also missed substantial time and is healthy now.
The home versus road splits are much tighter, too. The Brewers have a 103 wRC+ at home this year compared to a 106 wRC+ for the Red Birds on the road.
Finally, the Brewers are in better form, with a 102 wRC+ in the previous 30 days versus an 87 wRC+ for the Cardinals. Getting plus-money on Misiorowski and the Brewers covering a 1.5-run spread is tantalizing.
Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+104)
Seattle Mariners (-116) at Athletics (-102) | O/U 10.0 (-105/-115)
Aaron Civale versus Luis Castillo isn’t a battle of front-of-the-rotation starters. Moreover, Civale’s 3.31 ERA in 10 starts this season and 3.48 ERA in four starts at home aren’t indicative of the quality of his underlying data.
The 30-year-old righty has a 4.90 xERA, 4.80 xFIP, 4.81 SIERA and 1.39 WHIP, with a 5.16 xFIP and 1.65 WHIP at home. In addition, Civale has coughed up a .352 wOBA to lefties since last season and a .309 wOBA to righties. Seattle’s projected starting lineup includes six left-handed batters. The A’s also have a below-average bullpen, ranking 23rd in ERA (4.30).
On the other side, the Mariners have a quality bullpen, sporting the eighth-lowest ERA (3.66). Unfortunately for Seattle, Luis Castillo hasn’t pitched well.
The veteran righty has a 6.41 ERA, 5.54 xERA, 4.30 xFIP, 4.04 SIERA and 1.55 WHIP in 10 appearances (nine starts) in 2026. He’ll be used in tandem with Bryce Miller. Miller has a 1.64 ERA, 1.98 xERA, 3.59 xFIP, 3.60 SIERA and 1.00 WHIP, but he’s only made two starts, totaling 11 innings.
Both hurlers have also struggled mightily away from their pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Castillo owns a 5.19 ERA and 4.53 xFIP in 104 innings on the road since last year. Miller has been worse, with a 5.33 ERA and 4.85 xFIP in 50.2 innings. Both hurlers have been hammered by lefties.
Castillo and Miller have coughed up a .359 wOBA and .348 wOBA to left-handed batters since last season, respectively. Miller has allowed a .334 wOBA to righties since 2025, and Castillo has held them to a .275 wOBA.
The Athletics typically have four left-handed batters in their lineup. They have another left-handed batter and a switch-hitter on the bench who are options if they want to overload the lineup with left-handed-hitting options.
Whoever is in the lineups for both teams will benefit from playing at Sutter Health Park tonight. It has the second-highest park factor for runs, per FantasyPros. There should be fireworks in West Sacramento for this American League West matchup.
Pick: Over 10.0 Runs (-105)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.