MLB Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/4)
Monday’s Major League Baseball slate features 12 games, with 24 teams in action. The large slate has a couple of bets that are more appealing than the rest. Specifically, two overs for team totals are exciting wagers. Check out the top MLB picks & predictions below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Philadelphia Phillies (-115) at Miami Marlins (-105) | O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)
Aaron Nola was a trainwreck last year, and it’s more of the same this season. According to FanGraphs, he had a 6.01 ERA in 17 starts last season. Nola’s 4.12 xERA, 3.71 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA in 2025 suggested he was unlucky.
However, Nola has a 6.03 ERA, 4.87 xERA, 3.70 xFIP and 3.85 SIERA through six starts this year. The time for viewing Nola as a regression candidate based on his ERA estimators has passed.
Additionally, Nola has been a disaster on the road. In 62.2 innings on the road since last year, Nola has been tattooed for a 6.75 ERA.
The Phillies also have an unimpressive bullpen. Philadelphia’s relievers have permitted the 14th-highest ERA (4.28) in 2026.
The Marlins have a quality offense as well. Miami is tied for 10th in wRC+ (107) against righties and 13th in wRC+ (112) at home this season. The Marlins have surpassed 3.5 runs in two of their last three games. They’ve also gone over 3.5 runs in 13 of 19 home games this year, and they should do so again today.
Pick: Marlins Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-140)
Cincinnati Reds (+179) at Chicago Cubs (-219) | O/U 11.5 (-102/-118)
The Cubs are fifth in wRC+ (112) versus righties and third in wRC+ (124) at home this year. They’d be a handful for most righties in their home ballpark, and Chase Petty is significantly worse than most righties.
Petty reached the Majors last year for the first time, and he was a mess in three appearances (two starts), allowing 14 runs (13 earned runs) in only 6.0 innings, resulting in a 19.50 ERA, 11.07 xERA, 7.61 xFIP, and 6.57 SIERA.
Petty was also responsible for an unsightly 6.39 ERA and 4.97 xFIP in 26 starts at the Triple-A level last year. The young righty has pitched better at the Triple-A level this year, but a 4.38 ERA and 4.11 xFIP in six starts in 2026 hardly inspires confidence in him having more success in this second shot in the Majors.
The Reds also have a mediocre bullpen. They’re 15th in ERA (4.14) but have the second-highest xFIP (5.01). Petty and Cincinnati’s relievers would struggle to keep Chicago’s offense in check in neutral hitting conditions.
However, they won’t have the good fortune of neutral hitting conditions. Instead, it appears the wind will be blowing out at 13-16 mph. The Cubs took advantage of the favorable wind conditions yesterday and hung eight runs on the Diamondbacks. The Cubs should light up the scoreboard again tonight. Their team total of 6.5 runs is justifiably high, but getting it at -105 odds is alluring.
Pick: Cubs Team Total Over 6.5 Runs (-105)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.