MLB Picks & Predictions: Monday (7/20)
Monday’s Major League Baseball slate starts at 6:40 p.m. ET. It features 15 games. A team total and a run line selection are the most enticing bets on the slate. Check out our top MLB picks & predictions below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
San Diego Padres (+123) at Braves (-149) | O/U 9.0 (-112/-108)
Atlanta’s offense has a delectable matchup tonight. According to FanGraphs, JP Sears posted a 7.92 ERA, 5.73 xERA, 5.09 xFIP, and 1.84 WHIP over 14 Triple-A starts totaling 63.2 innings before the Padres called him up. Clearly, he didn’t do anything to warrant another crack at the Majors, but the Padres were in dire need of a starter.
Sears has pitched predictably poorly since the Padres summoned him. In four starts spanning 19.2 innings, Sears has logged the following stats:
- 5.03 ERA
- 5.39 xERA
- 4.47 xFIP
- 4.58 SIERA
- 9.3% walk rate
- 19.8% strikeout rate
- 1.42 WHIP
- 9.9% SwStr%
- 25% CSW%
- 90 stuff+
- 99 location+
- 90 pitching+
In those four starts, he allowed two (5.2 innings), seven (4.2 innings), zero (5.0 innings) and three runs (4.1 innings).
Sears has been a punching bag for right-handed batters, allowing a .359 wOBA to 68 of them this season. The veteran lefty has held 18 left-handed batters to a .240 wOBA this year. Having said that, the sample is small. He did give up a .354 wOBA to 96 left-handed batters in 2025.
Atlanta’s projected starting lineup against Sears includes five batters with at least a 107 wRC+ against lefties since 2024, and none have a wRC+ worse than Jorge Mateo’s 91. Additionally, six of the projected starters are right-handed batters or switch-hitters. Left-handed hitters Drake Baldwin (126 wRC+) and Matt Olson (123 wRC+) have hammered southpaws since 2024.
San Diego’s bullpen isn’t an ideal matchup for Atlanta’s offensive outlook. The Padres are sixth in bullpen ERA (3.68) this season. Still, the Braves should be able to rough up Sears and can potentially clear their team total of 4.5 runs against him alone.
The Braves could also face lower-leverage relievers in San Diego’s bullpen if Sears puts the Padres in a hole, enhancing Atlanta’s odds of scoring at least five runs tonight.
Pick: Braves Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-130)
New York Mets (+158) at Brewers (-193) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-114)
Jacob Misiorowski is on a crash course with the National League Cy Young Award. He’s dominating. Among 58 qualified pitchers this season, Misiorowski is:
- First in ERA (1.62)
- First in xERA (2.06)
- First in xFIP (2.10)
- First in SIERA (2.20)
- First in WHIP (0.76)
- First in strikeout rate (39.6%)
Milwaukee’s ace with the premium cheddar also has the plate discipline numbers - 17.2% SwStr% and 34.8% CSW% - and the pitch-modeling data -127 stuff+, 101 location+ and 128 pitching+ - to support his otherworldly numbers.
Unsurprisingly, the Brewers ace has been dominant at home. In 99 innings across 18 career starts at home, Misiorowski has twirled a 2.27 ERA, 2.37 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, 7.3% walk rate and 39.2% strikeout rate.
The stud hurler has earned 10 wins and tallied 12 quality starts this season. The Brewers have won 10 of his 18 starts by two runs or more.
Meanwhile, former Brewer Freddy Peralta has been one of the league’s biggest disappointments in his first season with the Mets. In 20 starts spanning 104.1 innings this year, Peralta has recorded the following stats:
- 4.66 ERA
- 3.82 xERA
- 4.25 xFIP
- 4.29 SIERA
- 1.44 WHIP
- 9.4% walk rate
- 22.3% strikeout rate
- 11.3% SwStr%
- 25.3% CSW%
- 96 stuff+
- 104 location+
- 101 pitching+
Peralta has pitched especially poorly on the road - 5.58 ERA, 4.65 xFIP and 1.54 WHIP in 40.1 road innings.
The Brewers also have an offensive advantage over the Mets. Milwaukee is fifth in wRC+ (109) versus righties, and the Mets are tied for 26th in wRC+ (91) against righties in 2026. They even have a small offensive advantage lately. In the previous 30 days, the Brewers are tied for 13th in wRC+ (103), and the Mets are tied for 15th in wRC+ (101).
The Brewers should not only win tonight, but they should cover their run line at inviting +108 odds.
Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+108)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.