MLB Picks & Predictions: Monday (7/27)
Monday’s Major League Baseball slate starts at 2:35 p.m. ET. It features 12 games. A Run Line wager and a team total are the most enticing bets on the slate. Check out our top MLB picks & predictions below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Philadelphia Phillies (-181) at Marlins (+149) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
Zack Wheeler opened the season on the injured list (IL). He’s rapidly made up for lost time, dominating since making his season debut on April 25th. According to FanGraphs, Wheeler has recorded the following numbers in 16 starts spanning 100 innings in 2026:
- 10 wins
- 12 quality starts
- 2.16 ERA
- 2.61 xERA
- 2.76 xFIP
- 2.91 SIERA
- 0.88 WHIP
- 5.8 BB%
- 30.8 K%
- 46.0 GB%
- 13.5 SwStr%
- 27.6 CSW%
- 104 stuff+
- 108 location+
- 113 pitching+
The righty has also dominated on the road. In nine road starts, totaling 57.1 innings this season, Wheeler has twirled a 1.73 ERA, 2.81 xFIP, 0.82 WHIP, 4.7 BB%, and 29.9 K%.
The Phillies have won 10 of his starts by more than 1.5 runs this season. Additionally, the Phillies spectacularly snapped a four-game losing streak with an 11-4 victory on Sunday, and eight of their nine wins in July have been by more than 1.5 runs.
The Marlins don’t have an ace to match Wheeler. Instead, Tyler Phillips is toeing the slab for Miami. He’s made 16 relief appearances and 10 starts this year. In Phillips’s 10 starts, he’s been knocked around for a 4.84 ERA, 5.46 xERA, 4.67 xFIP, and 5.02 SIERA, with a 1.39 WHIP, 8.9 BB%, and 14.7 K%.
Ultimately, the starting pitching advantage for the Phillies tonight should allow them to overcome slight disadvantages offensively against righties and a modest bullpen disadvantage and beat the Marlins by more than 1.5 runs.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 Runs (-103)
Milwaukee Brewers (-136) at Giants (+113) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)
Brandon Sproat has made 17 starts and two relief appearances for the Brewers this year after starting four games for the Mets last year, logging 86.2 innings this year and 20.2 last season. He has a 5.03 ERA, 4.77 xERA, 4.23 xFIP, 4.28 SIERA, 1.35 WHIP, 10.9 BB%, and 23.6 K% in 107.1 innings in the Majors.
Sproat’s numbers are unimpressive in his starts this year. In those 17 starts spanning 79.1 innings, Sproat has recorded the following numbers:
- 4.99 ERA
- 4.81 xERA
- 4.25 xFIP
- 4.20 SIERA
- 1.34 WHIP
- 10.9 BB%
- 24.6 K%
- 10.7 SwStr%
- 26.5 CSW%
- 101 stuff+
- 95 location+
- 94 pitching+
Sproat has also been rocked by all hitters. The 197 left-handed batters who’ve faced him this year have teed off for a .345 wOBA, and the 176 right-handed batters have recorded a .351 wOBA.
Furthermore, Milwaukee’s opponents have exceeded 3.5 runs in 12 of Sproat’s 19 appearances this season, including back-to-back appearances.
San Francisco’s lineup can put a hurting on him. Seven of the projected starters have recorded at least a 105 wRC+ against righties since 2024, with five posting at least a 114 wRC+ and four ripping off at least a 119 wRC+. The Giants should clear the low bar of 3.5 runs tonight, something they’ve done in three of their last four games and two of their last three at home.
Pick: Giants Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-130)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.