MLB Picks & Predictions: Monday (8/31)
Monday’s Major League Baseball slate starts at 6:05 p.m. ET. It features 12 games. A team total and a Moneyline selection are the most enticing bets on the slate. Check out our top MLB picks & predictions below.
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Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Chicago White Sox (+109) at Astros (-131) | O/U 8.5 (-104/-115)
Anthony Kay spent the 2024 and 2025 seasons pitching in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB). The lefty has pitched decently in his stateside return. However, Kay has also been rather lucky.
The 31-year-old lefty’s 4.09 ERA in 25 starts and two relief appearances doesn’t align with his underlying data. According to FanGraphs, he also has a 4.92 xERA, 4.62 xFIP and 4.46 SIERA. Kay has also been considerably better at home than on the road.
In 12 road starts spanning 57 innings in 2026, Kay has recorded a 4.89 ERA, 4.87 xFIP and 1.42 WHIP. Kay’s home-and-road splits aren’t the only meaningful split for tonight’s matchup.
Kay has held 160 left-handed batters to a .241 wOBA this year, albeit allowing a .319 wOBA to 71 of them on the road. He’s been a disaster against righties, though, allowing a .373 wOBA to 428 right-handed batters, with a .377 wOBA surrendered to 185 right-handed batters on the road.
The Astros are projected to start seven right-handed hitters tonight. Additionally, eight of their projected starters have amassed at least a 108 wRC+ against lefties since 2024. Finally, Yordan Alvarez is one of the two left-handed batters in Houston’s projected lineup, and he’s rattled off a .409 wOBA and 169 wRC+ in 398 plate appearances against lefties since 2024. Houston should tee off on Kay, and getting +110 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for over 4.5 runs for their team total is desirable.
Pick: Astros Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+110)
Philadelphia Phillies (-125) at Diamondbacks (+104) | O/U 8.0 (-118/-102)
Brandon Pfaadt is having a career year. That said, he’s also been relatively lucky. In 14 starts and 10 relief appearances totaling 105 innings this year, the righty has tallied the following numbers:
- 3.51 ERA
- 3.74 xERA
- 4.33 xFIP
- 4.36 SIERA
- 1.30 WHIP
- 6% walk rate
- 16.7% strikeout rate
- 9.3% SwStr%
- 25.8% CSW%
- 94 stuff+
- 104 location+
- 100 pitching+
His underlying data is OK, but his ERA notably outkicks it. Pfaadt has also surrendered a .329 wOBA to 240 left-handed batters, despite running pure this year.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s projected lineup includes six left-handed batters. It’s not a world-beater lineup. Still, eight of the projected starters have at least a 95 wRC+ against righties since 2024, with four boasting at least a 118 wRC+.
Aaron Nola hasn’t pitched as well as Pfaadt this year. Nonetheless, the veteran righty is in pristine form. In his previous five starts, totaling 29 innings, Nola has logged the following numbers:
- 2.79 ERA
- 3.48 xERA
- 2.96 xFIP
- 3.14 SIERA
- 1.21 WHIP
- 8.5% walk rate
- 31.4% strikeout rate
- 13.9% SwStr%
- 31.1% CSW%
- 102 stuff+
- 107 location+
- 108 pitching+
The Diamondbacks aren’t an imposing matchup for Nola, either. Five of Arizona’s hitters have amassed a 98 wRC+ or lower against righties since 2024. Moreover, the Diamondbacks are tied for 19th in wRC+ (91) in the previous 14 days. Backing Philadelphia’s hot hurler and superior offense is appealing tonight.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-125)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.