MLB Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (5/12)
I've got two MLB picks for this Tuesday of MLB action, backing one underdog and one favorite. Both plays feature a starting pitcher to fade, leading to overwhelming advantages in starting pitching and offense.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of bet365)
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians
The Angels are hardly a team that ever catches my eye when I'm looking at the day's slate of games. I like to target a few of their hitters for different props, but I usually fall short of playing their Moneyline because of the usual starting pitching discrepancy between them and their opponent.
That's starting to change, though, in large part to Jose Soriano, who is having a phenomenal year and, more importantly for this play, tonight's starter, Walbert Urena. Urena is having a very nice start to his rookie campaign with the Halos, currently rocking a 3.22 ERA through his first six starts.
Urena’s xERA nearly mirrors his actual ERA at 3.26, and puts him in the top quartile of all pitchers. He has a sub-0.200 xBA of a minuscule 0.196, and he avoids hard-hit contact in the air, ranking above the 80th percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and groundball rate.
Urena also generates a fair bit of chase, grading out in the 77th percentile in terms of chase rate with elite offspeed stuff that holds a run value in the 93rd percentile.
Guardians starter Slade Cecconi is struggling in nearly every aspect. He holds a bloated ERA of 6.15 with a sky-high WHIP of 1.59. His underlying numbers reflect his poor performance, as he grades out below the 32nd percentile in all of the following categories: xERA
- xBA
- chase rate
- whiff rate
- strikeout rate
- barrel rate
Cecconi’s fastball grades out just slightly above league average, but his overall pitching run value ranks in the 12th percentile, and his breaking ball run value is legitimately as bad as it gets, placing him in the first percentile.
Offensively, the Angels have the upper hand. They hit for a better average than Cleveland, and they feature way more pop, ranking nearly 10 spots ahead of the Guardians in both slugging rate and OPS, and eighth overall in home runs.
Usually, I like to try to pick on left-handed pitchers with hitters at the top of the order, like Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Jo Adell and Jorge Soler, but Cecconi has actually been much worse against right-handed batters, allowing a slugging rate of 0.998 to righties this season.
I'm targeting just the first five Moneyline in this game because I want to keep the Angels’ bullpen out of this play, as they have been absolutely brutal with the third-worst ERA in all of baseball.
We'll see the top of the Angels’ batting order twice through by the fifth inning, and I trust them to do enough damage with a decisive pitching advantage to hold the lead through the first five innings.
Pick: Los Angeles Angels First Five Moneyline (+110)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
It’s good to see Shane McClanahan back on the bump for the Rays, and he seems to be in even better form than we saw him way back in 2023. His 2.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP are both phenomenal, with all the underlying metrics to back it up.
McClanahan’s overall pitching run value, breaking ball run value and offspeed run value all grade out in the 95th percentile or higher, proving he is still among the elite. He grades out above the 60th percentile in all of the following categories:
- xERA
- xBA
- average exit velocity
- whiff rate
- strikeout rate
- groundball rate
McClanahan is at the top of his game right now, failing to allow an earned run over his previous three starts (16.2 innings).
Meanwhile, Patrick Corbin and his 3.60 ERA are absolutely not reflective of the pitcher he has been in his 14th season. Corbin's 6.19 xERA is a full 2.5 runs higher and has him in the seventh percentile; when you pair that with his fourth percentile xBA of 0.310, it tells you that he has been astronomically lucky.
Corbin flat out does not miss bats, grading out in the 21st percentile or below in whiff rate, chase rate and strikeout rate, and he gets hit hard, grading out below the 40th percentile in terms of average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and groundball rate.
About the only redeeming quality of Corbin’s pitching profile is his ability to avoid the free pass, though those underlying numbers suggest he might be better off avoiding the strike zone from time to time.
Offensively, this Rays team just flat out produces. They rank fourth in all of baseball in batting average and eighth in on-base percentage (OBP), highlighted by baserunning demon Chandler Simpson and on-base machine Yandy Diaz.
And while they don't necessarily have an extraordinary amount of power throughout the entire lineup, Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda offer sufficient pop at the top of their order. Toronto is worse than or essentially equal to Tampa Bay in nearly every single offensive category, and the Rays are absolutely on fire right now.
Tampa has surpassed the Yankees for the top record in the American League at 27-13, winners of nine out of their last 10 games. I'm not getting in front of this freight train right now, and I'm more than happy to take the generous price of -135 on their first five Moneyline with an overwhelming starting pitching advantage against the ticking time bomb that is Patrick Corbin.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays First Five Moneyline (-135)