MLB Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (5/26)
Fresh off two winners last week, I'm looking to get another two to the window this week. I'm targeting a couple of road teams playing underwhelming American League East teams at close-to-even juice with today’s MLB picks.
I give advantages to each of my picks at starting pitcher, bullpen pitching and overall offense, and I can't believe these prices aren't closer to the -150 range. I'll take two of the better teams in the Majors at these prices every single time.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
The red-hot Rays have finally cooled off a bit, dropping the series-ending game to the Yankees and the series opener to the Orioles. I don't think that lasts long, though, largely because ex-Rays pitcher Shane Baz will be taking the mound for the Orioles tonight.
Baz has not replicated the success he had in his 2021 debut season, and he currently holds a 4.87 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. His underlying numbers pretty much back up his poor performance, as he ranks below league average in all of the following categories:
- xERA
- xBA
- average exit velocity
- chase rate
- whiff rate
- strikeout rate
- walk rate
- groundball rate
- barrel rate
Simply put, Baz is not missing bats, is not generating soft contact and is not keeping the ball out of the air. That's a pretty bad combination, which is amplified by the fact that the Rays rank second in batting average, third in on-base percentage (OBP) and eighth in OPS.
The Rays are going to counter with Griffin Jax, who they have converted from a reliever to a pseudo-starter/opener role. Jax's 3.54 ERA is already solid, and his underlying numbers suggest he's been better than that. Jax has some nice swing-and-miss stuff, grading out among the top third of all pitchers in chase rate with an 81st percentile whiff rate.
Jax does a nice job avoiding hard contact as well, grading out above league average in terms of average exit velocity and barrel rate, with a 67th percentile hard-hit rate and a groundball rate of 51.3% in the 84th percentile. He also has some of the best offspeed stuff in the game, ranking among the top quartile of pitchers in terms of offspeed run value.
The Orioles’ offense has left a lot to be desired this season, ranking 20th or worse in both batting average and OBP with the third-most strikeouts in baseball and middling, at best, power numbers. Jax started against this same Orioles squad just a week ago and arguably posted his best outing of the season, recording a season-high six strikeouts and allowing only one earned run over a season-high five innings.
While the Rays’ bullpen isn't quite as lights-out as some of its previous iterations, I still prefer them to Baltimore's. The Orioles’ bullpen has a higher ERA and WHIP and has allowed more hits, runs and walks while recording nearly 10 fewer saves.
Put it all together, and I give the Rays the starting pitching advantage, the bullpen advantage and the offensive advantage. I like them to end their two-game skid tonight and get back into the win column against an Orioles team that continually plays below its talent level.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (-108)
Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox
Spencer Strider looks to have bounced back from his brutal 2025 campaign, currently rocking a 3.00 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with some pretty staggering advanced numbers.
For starters, Strider’s 2.68 xERA ranks just shy of the 90th percentile and suggests that he's been unlucky in the early going. His xBA is nearly as good as it gets, grading out in the 99th percentile at a minuscule 0.153. His swing-and-miss stuff has been dynamite as well, as he grades out in the 95th and 96th percentiles in strikeout rate and whiff rate, respectively.
Strider has been able to avoid hard contact as well, grading out above league average in average exit velocity and in the 74th percentile in hard-hit rate. The Red Sox have been sputtering offensively all year long, ranking below league average in batting average and OBP and in the bottom five in slugging rate, OPS and home runs.
While Red Sox southpaw Ranger Suarez has been pretty effective in his own right this season, he doesn't hold a candle to Strider in terms of his expected numbers or his swing-and-miss ability.
In fact, Suarez doesn't miss very many bats at all, evident by his 20th percentile whiff rate, which is largely the result of an average fastball velocity of 91 miles per hour (MPH), which ranks in the eighth percentile.
The Braves’ offense is also far superior to that of Boston's, leading the league in batting average and slugging rate, ranking second in terms of OPS and home runs, ninth in OBP and sitting just outside of the top 10 in strikeouts. Suarez allowed four earned runs in 4.2 innings to a similarly profiled Yankees offense just a month ago, though the Braves’ offense hits for average at a much higher clip with much more consistency.
While the Red Sox’s bullpen has been among the best in the Majors with an ERA of 3.06, the Braves are right behind them at 3.07 and actually have the best bullpen WHIP (1.09). The Braves have also outperformed them, with three more saves and fewer hits, runs, home runs and walks allowed.
I give the Braves the starting pitching edge with a healthy Strider, a decisive offensive advantage as arguably the best offense in the Majors and a slight bullpen advantage over a pretty respectable Boston bullpen.
I'll take the Braves on the Moneyline at this price every time.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (-115)