MLB Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (7/28)
I've got two National League divisional showdowns to bring to the table for tonight’s evening's slate of MLB action. All four teams featured are at least within one game of .500, and one of the games features one of the most historic rivalries in all of sports. Both of these series are going to prove to be absolutely critical to the National League playoff race as we near the trade deadline and prepare for the home stretch. I'm looking to take advantage of edges I see on a full game Moneyline and a total tonight with my MLB picks.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
The Marlins took Game 1 of this divisional series in comeback fashion, and I'm looking to back them again this evening with former National League Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara on the mound. His 4.01 ERA is a little bit misleading, as his underlying numbers suggest he's been on the receiving end of some bad luck.
For starters, Alcantara’s xERA is a quarter of a run lower at 3.74. His fastball is among the best in the game, with a run value in the 92nd percentile. He's missing fewer bats than he used to, but his hard-hit rate ranks in the 70th percentile with a 79th percentile barrel rate and an 80th percentile walk rate. He also has a 64th percentile groundball rate, which is critical for a Phillies lineup that features Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.
Aaron Nola, on the other hand, is certainly on the tail end of his career. His overall pitching run value and fastball run value are literally in the first percentile. His xERA is up at 4.30, with an xBA that approaches .250 - both right around the 40th percentile. He's been getting hit hard, evident by a 13th percentile barrel rate and 35th percentile hard-hit rate. And, Nola is not keeping the ball on the ground, with a groundball rate that sits in the 36th percentile.
Offensively, the Fish outperform the Phillies in nearly every single offensive statistical category. They rank in the top eight in both batting average and on-base percentage (OBP), categories in which the Phillies rank in the bottom 10 and second-worst, respectively. While that's not super surprising considering their roster construction, they also outpace the Phillies in slugging rate, and they rank in the top eight in OPS as well. I give the Marlins the bullpen advantage as well, as the Phillies’ bullpen has really struggled this season, ranking in the bottom 10 with an ERA of 4.39.
Putting all that together, the Marlins have the decisive edge in starting pitching, as well as advantages at the plate and in the bullpen. Add in the fact that they'll be the home team for this game with the opportunity to walk-off as they did last night, and I'm happy to take them on the Moneyline at near even money. A first five innings Moneyline wager is also in play, but due to the Phillies’ bullpen woes, I chose to go with the full game for the official pick.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline (-110)
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals will be starting Michael McGreevy tonight, a young right-hander who has been one of the luckiest pitchers in all of baseball. While McGreevy holds a 3.07 ERA, his xERA is nearly 2.5 full runs higher at 5.44, and ranks in the ninth percentile, which is pretty unfathomable.
McGreevy’s xBA is even worse, ranking in the fifth percentile at .286. His whiff rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate all grade out in the bottom quartile of all pitchers. McGreevy has been playing with fire all season long, and I believe that his 4-8 record is more indicative of his quality as a pitcher than his on-paper ERA.
Cubs starter Colin Rea has arguably been even worse, with a 5.55 xERA and 0.277 xBA, both of which grade out in the bottom 10th percentile. Similar to McGreevy, Rea’s whiff rate, strikeout rate and barrel rate all grade out among the bottom quartile of all pitchers, with a hard-hit rate that ranks in the bottom half of pitchers.
Offensively, the Cubs rank in the top 11 in batting average and slugging rate, with a top-five OPS and the second-best OBP in the Majors. They also rank in the top 10 in home runs and hits, with the fourth-most runs scored and the most walks.
While the Cards don't necessarily pose a huge power threat outside of Jordan Walker, they still rank around the middle of the pack in OBP, batting average and total runs scored. Looking at the bullpens, the Cardinals have a bottom-10 unit in ERA and WHIP. The Cubs haven't been all that great either, with a near-4.00 ERA and a WHIP north of 1.30.
Both of these starting pitchers have some of the worst expected metrics in the entire league, backed by two bottom-half bullpens to come in for relief. The Cubs arguably have a top-five offense on any given night, and the Cardinals have certainly been more competent offensively than most predicted coming into the season. Combine that with a warm night in St. Louis, and this ballgame has all the makings for an over.
Pick: Over 9.0 Runs (+100)