MLB Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (8/25)
I've got a two-pack of MLB picks this evening - one Moneyline bet and one bet on the total.
The Moneyline play is kind of a no-brainer given the quality of the teams involved and their current form, and it’s honestly a play you could make 162 games a year and feel pretty good about.
The total bet is a bit contrarian given the offensive quality of the teams and the hitting environment they'll be playing in, but the poor pitching more than makes up for it.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers
The Tigers will be starting third-year righty Jackson Jobe this evening, who will be making just his fourth start of the season. While two of his outings have been pretty decent, he mixed in one blow-up performance against the White Sox, where he allowed six earned runs and failed to get through the fourth inning.
The Rays’ offense will easily be the best lineup he’s faced this season, as Tampa ranks in the top six in both OPS and on-base percentage (OBP), with the league's highest batting average. They also have the league's fewest strikeouts and are tied for fourth in stolen bases, making their lineup that much more difficult to maneuver.
The Rays will counter with southpaw Ian Seymour, whose underlying and expected numbers suggest he's been a much better pitcher than his 4.17 ERA might indicate. His offspeed pitches rank among the best in the game, with a run value in the 90th percentile. His xERA is nearly half a run lower at 3.70 and suggests that he's been quite unlucky, and his xBA of 0.222 ranks above the 70th percentile.
Seymour’s swing-and-miss stuff is nearly elite, ranking in the 80th percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate, and both his average exit velocity and barrel rate rank comfortably above league average.
The Tigers’ offense doesn't hold a candle to that of the Rays, as they are middling, at best, in basically every single offensive statistical category, with the 11th most strikeouts and a bottom-10 batting average.
When it comes to bullpens, these squads are pretty comparable - while the Tigers have a slightly lower ERA, the Rays have a slightly lower WHIP. The Rays are unquestionably the better team in this matchup, and the Tigers are in horrible form at the moment.
Detroit has lost five in a row and nine of their last 10 games, and I don't think seeing the American League-leading Rays is going to help turn that around. When it comes to just winning ballgames, the Rays are among the most reliable in the sport, and that's all we need them to do tonight.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (-122)
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants
I am not a fan of Giants starting pitcher Adrian Houser, who is currently rocking a 4.08 ERA with an xERA that suggests that he's actually been pretty lucky, if anything, as it ranks in the 15th percentile at 4.98.
Houser simply does not miss bats, ranking below the 10th percentile in whiff rate, chase rate and strikeout rate. And when he gets hit, he tends to get hit hard, ranking below the 30th percentile in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate with a 13th percentile xBA of 0.269.
As bad as Houser has been, Reds starter Brady Singer has been categorically worse, with expected numbers that suggest he's been one of the worst pitchers in the entire sport. The run value on Singer's fastball and breaking balls ranks below the 10th percentile, combining for an overall pitching run value in the third percentile.
Houser’s xERA of 5.04 ranks below the 15th percentile and is also higher than his actual ERA, suggesting he's also been a bit lucky. His chase rate and strikeout rate rank among the bottom quartile of all pitchers, with a bottom-third hard-hit rate, a barrel rate that ranks among the bottom 20th percentile and an average exit velocity that sits in just the sixth percentile.
When it comes to bullpens, neither team has one to write home about. The Giants rank in the bottom half of baseball in both ERA and WHIP. The Reds have been even worse, approaching bottom-five numbers in both categories.
For how bad the Giants have been this year, they've actually had a pretty serviceable offense. They rank in the top half of baseball in terms of slugging rate, with a top-10 batting average and a bottom-10 strikeout rate.
The only thing not to like about this over is the ballpark, but it looks like we will at least get the benefit of winds around eight miles per hour (MPH) blowing out to center field. With poor starting and relief pitching, these offenses can be productive enough to clear this total, which is currently just sitting at eight runs.
Pick: Over 8.0 Runs (-108)