MLB Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (8/4)
I’m looking in two different directions for my two picks this evening, as I’ll be backing one team that cannot buy a win and one team that can do absolutely no wrong right now. I also have two different ways of playing these teams, as I’m keeping one pick to the F5 ML with the other pick on the full game ML, which is largely reflective of how I feel about each team’s respective bullpen. I gave out two winners coming out of the All-Star Break last Tuesday, let’s see if I can keep that rolling into two more winners this evening.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds
The A’s have gone ice cold lately, largely a result of poor starting pitching paired with the injury to their All-Star catcher Shea Langeliers, but I’m backing them on the F5 Moneyline tonight in Cincinnati. JT Ginn will get the start for the A’s, serving as what has likely been their most consistent starting pitching option this season. Ginn’s overall pitching run value sits in the 83rd percentile, which is a reflection of his 82nd percentile fastball and 96th percentile offspeed in terms of run value. Ginn has really excelled at avoiding hard contact, which is evident by his 83rd percentile average exit velocity and his hard-hit rate and barrel rate, which both grade out above the 70th percentile. He’s also generated whiffs at a top-third rate, and his ground ball rate qualifies in the top quartile of all pitchers.
His counterpart this evening will be Brady Singer of the Reds, who has been the complete opposite of Ginn in nearly all aspects. Singer has an overall pitching run value of -16, which has him in the 3rd percentile of all pitchers. His xERA of 4.96 and xBA of 0.265 both grade out below the 20th percentile, and both his average exit velocity and barrel rate grade out in the bottom quartile of all pitchers. His chase rate and strikeout rate also both come in below the 30th percentile. His calling card used to be his ability to generate ground balls at a high rate, but even that has fallen off a cliff now as he’s right around league average in that category.
Offensively, the A’s have unquestionably been more productive than the Reds this season. Cincinnati ranks dead last in terms of AVG, a statistic that the A’s rank 12th in. The A’s also outpace the Reds in terms of OBP, OPS, and SLG, categories in which the Reds rank in the bottom half of the MLB. The Reds also strikeout at the 3rd-highest rate in baseball, and they have generated the 5th-fewest runs. Even with the loss to Langeliers, I still have the A’s as the objectively better offense in this contest. The one area that I give the Reds the advantage is the bullpen, as the A’s have the worst bullpen by ERA and the 2nd-worst bullpen by WHIP. Therefore, I’ll keep this play to the F5 innings, where I give the advantage to Ginn and the A’s offense.
Pick: Athletics F5 Moneyline (+110 at Bet365)
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
I backed the ice-cold A’s in the first game, so I’ll balance that out by backing the red-hot Red Sox here in this second game. The only reason this price isn’t closer to -150 is because of White Sox starter Davis Martin’s season-long numbers, which are not reflective of the pitcher he’s been in recent outings. After ending the month of May with a sterling ERA of 2.00, he posted an ERA of 5.68 in the month of June and 6.00 in the month of July, bringing his ERA all the way up to where it currently sits at 3.62. His advanced metrics suggest that he’s been a little bit lucky as well, as his xERA is significantly higher at 4.31 and ranks in just the 40th percentile. He’s been getting hit hard, evident by his xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate which all grade out below the 20th percentile. He has surrendered at least 4 ER in five of his last 10 starts, and I don’t like the way he’s trending going into this matchup.
The Red Sox will be rolling out the veteran southpaw Patrick Sandoval, who’s a little bit of an unknown as he will be making just his 5th start of the season. Though he doesn’t have the sample size to officially qualify to be ranked on Baseball Savant, he’s done a nice job of generating soft contact. As they currently stand, his average exit velocity and barrel rate would qualify among the top quartile of all pitchers, and his hard-hit rate would rank among the top third. He hasn’t allowed the free pass either, which is reflected in his 7% walk rate.
Offensively, the numbers between these two teams are extremely comparable, although the Red Sox hit for average and reach base at a higher clip. As such, the Red Sox also put the ball in play much more frequently, as they strikeout at a bottom-10 rate compared to the top-6 strikeout rate of the White Sox. The season-long numbers are not totally reflective of the Red Sox performance over the past month+ though, and I wouldn’t feel confident picking any offense over the Red Sox right now. When it comes to bullpens, the Red Sox have the best one in the bigs. They lead the majors with an ERA of 2.95, a WHIP of 1.15, walks allowed and earned runs allowed. They also rank top-5 in both hits and HR allowed, and when the ball gets handed over to Aroldis Chapman it’s almost always the nail in the coffin. I give the Red Sox the advantage in every facet of the game, and I see no reason to get in the way of their current form, especially against a pitcher who has been leaking oil down the stretch.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-125 at Caesars)