MLB Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/15)
Yes, football season is back, but don’t let that distract you from the fact that postseason baseball is just around the corner. For some teams, playoff baseball has essentially already started, particularly in the battles for the American League Central, American League West and the final Wild Card spot. I’m attacking one of those divisions for one of my best MLB picks tonight, where I expect a bounce-back performance in a lopsided starting-pitching matchup.
My other best bet has some potential playoff ramifications as well, featuring a really ugly starting pitching matchup between two teams that technically have not yet been eliminated from playoff contention.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
This play starts and ends with White Sox starter Davis Martin, who has really been leaking oil down the stretch after pitching like a legitimate Cy Young contender over the first half of the season. To be fair, Martin has really overperformed relative to expectations for most of the season, as his xERA is noticeably higher than his actual ERA and ranks in the bottom quartile among all pitchers at 4.71.
Martin has allowed three or more earned runs in half of his starts since the calendar flipped to June and already has a really ugly start against the Guardians to his name this season, in which he failed to complete four innings while walking five and surrendering six hits.
Martin’s hard-hit metrics are concerning, ranking in the bottom-20th percentile in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, with a below-average groundball rate. And he’s not missing a ton of bats, with a whiff rate and strikeout rate that each rank below the 40th percentile.
The Guardians will counter with trade-deadline acquisition Foster Griffin, who is in the midst of a breakout campaign in his third season in the Majors. Griffin’s fastball has graded out exceedingly well this season, putting him in the 94th percentile in terms of run value, paired with an offspeed arsenal that grades out above the 70th percentile.
Griffin’s hard-hit metrics are better than Martin’s, grading out just shy of the 60th percentile in hard-hit rate, with an average exit velocity grading out in the top third of all pitchers. His groundball rate is much better as well, also grading out among the top third of pitchers at 45.4%.
Griffin had one start against the White Sox as a member of the Nationals and tossed an absolute beauty - seven shutout innings with eight punchouts and only two hits surrendered.
The White Sox’s bullpen is sneakily better than I think most people would give them credit for, ranking inside the top 10 in ERA and WHIP, but they are still bested by Cleveland in nearly every statistical category. The Guardians’ bullpen has a slightly lower ERA and WHIP and has allowed 20 fewer home runs, nearly 80 fewer walks and over 150 fewer hits.
The season-long numbers will tell you that the White Sox have been the better offense, but that has not been true down the stretch, with an offense that has failed to put up more than three runs in over half of their games since the calendar flipped to September.
I give the Guardians a decisive starting pitcher advantage with Griffin over the struggling Martin, and I believe they have the better bullpen as well. I like Cleveland to bounce back after last night’s loss and pull back to within 0.5 games of the division lead.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-130 @ bet365)
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets
I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup, starting with Sean Manaea. Manaea has one of the worst run values in all of baseball, grading out in the sixth percentile with a pitching run value of -16, largely due to his 17th-percentile offspeed run value and first percentile breaking-ball run value.
Manaea’s xERA is approaching 5.00 and ranks in the bottom quartile among pitchers, as do his xBA, whiff rate and barrel rate. He ranks just outside the bottom third in terms of average exit velocity, with a bottom-third hard-hit rate. He also ranks in the bottom half in strikeout rate and groundball rate.
Manaea has also given up four or more runs in each of his previous five starts. There really isn’t a single redeeming quality about him as a starting pitcher at this point in his career, and I’ve got no problem fading him tonight.
Orioles starter Shane Baz has certainly been better than Manaea, but not by much. His offspeed has also been pretty horrendous, grading out in the bottom 20th percentile for breaking ball run value, with a fourth percentile offspeed run value. He grades out in the bottom half of all qualified pitchers in terms of xERA, xBA, chase rate and strikeout rate.
Baz has been getting hit hard, evidenced by his bottom-third average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and groundball rate. He is fresh off allowing five earned runs and has allowed three or more earned runs in half of his starts since the beginning of July, and I like that to continue tonight.
The season-long numbers for both offenses have objectively not been great, but I think both should be able to find some avenues to success considering the caliber of starting pitching we have. And when it comes to bullpens, both have been pretty middling this season with no reason to keep me off the full game over.
It also looks like we’ll get the benefit of a slight breeze blowing out toward left-center field, which should create a more positive hitting environment in an otherwise pretty neutral Citi Field. Eight runs is not a high bar to clear with poor starting pitching, and I see this game eclipsing that total this evening.
Pick: Over 8.0 Runs (-110 @ BetMGM)