MLB Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/8)
I've got two MLB picks this evening, both in the first five innings market to avoid the bullpens in each game. I'm taking one over in a game between two top-10 offenses and starting pitchers I do not trust. I'm also making one Moneyline bet, fading a once-dominant pitcher in his first start of the season after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
I know football season is just getting underway, but there's still money to be made betting on baseball.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
Freddy Peralta gets the start for the Rays tonight. He’s in the midst of his worst season since 2019 and one of the worst of his entire career. Peralta's inflated ERA is just shy of 5.00, with a pretty elevated WHIP of 1.37.
Peralta's fastball has not been great, ranking below the 20th percentile and accounting for a large share of why his overall pitching run value also grades below the 20th percentile. His breaking and offspeed pitches haven't exactly been great either, ranking below league average. Altogether, nothing in Peralta's arsenal has offered a positive run value this season.
Peralta fails to grade out above the 60th percentile in any of the following categories:
- xERA
- xBA
- chase rate
- whiff rate
- strikeout rate
- walk rate
- hard-hit rate
What's especially concerning with that profile is his ground ball rate, which sits below 40% and has him in the 35th percentile.
Coming over to the Rays has not magically fixed him either, as he has allowed 18 earned runs over 33.1 innings, including three or more earned runs in half of his starts with the team. Those numbers are not a recipe for success against a Braves lineup that has boasted its power throughout the season.
The Braves rank in the top-10 in both home runs and total runs scored, and they rank in the top five in slugging rate and total bases.
Braves starter AJ Smith-Shawver has not been great this season either, and will be making just his fifth start. While his sample size is not large enough to compare against the rest of the league, his 7.13 ERA and 1.75 WHIP are alarmingly high.
Like Peralta, none of Smith-Shawver’s pitching arsenal grades out above league average or has a positive run value. He would also rank below the league average in all of the following categories:
- xERA
- xBA
- average exit velocity
- chase rate
- whiff rate
- strikeout rate
- groundball rate
- hard-hit rate
Smith-Shawver’s walk rate is also way too high at 13.1%. That's really bad news, considering he faces a Rays lineup that ranks in the top half in slugging rate, in the top six in both on-base percentage (OBP) and OPS and has the highest team average in the sport. They also rank among the top five in stolen bases and strike out at the lowest rate in baseball, putting consistent pressure on their opponents all game long.
I trust both bullpens, which is why I'm restricting this play to the first five innings, where I see both offenses putting up runs against two untrustworthy starting pitchers.
Pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 Runs (-114)
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
Corbin Burnes will make his first start of the season after returning from Tommy John surgery, hoping to give the Diamondbacks the boost they need to propel them into a playoff spot. While 2025 Burnes was pretty good, his underlying numbers suggested he wasn't quite as good as his 2.66 ERA would indicate.
Burnes’ xERA was significantly higher at 3.85, and his associated swing-and-miss and hard-hit metrics were the worst we've seen from Burnes since 2019. His walk rate was also extremely high, approaching 10%. While the Royals have had an overall disappointing season, they have been pretty competent offensively.
The Royals are a top-half team in terms of average, OBP, OPS, slugging rate and total bases. They rank in the top 10 in steals, and they strike out at a bottom-five rate.
The Royals will counter with All-Star Michael Wacha, who has aged like a fine wine and is looking to maintain a sub-4.00 ERA for the fifth straight season.
Wacha's offspeed stuff has truly been among the best in baseball this season, ranking in the 99th percentile with a run value of 12 and contributing in large part to his overall pitching run value, which ranks among the top quartile of pitchers.
While he doesn't generate a ton of swing-and-miss, Wacha has really mitigated hard contact, ranking above the 60th percentile in barrel rate and average exit velocity with a top-third hard-hit rate.
Wacha also has an excellent command of the strike zone, with a 6.2% walk rate that puts him above the 80th percentile. Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank in the bottom half of baseball in average, OPS, slugging rate and OBP. They have also hit fewer home runs and have far fewer stolen bases than the Royals this season.
I want absolutely no part of the Royals’ bullpen, which is a bottom-five unit in baseball, so I'm keeping this play to the first five innings. I think the Royals have the starting pitching advantage with Wacha over an aging Burnes making his first start in over a year, and the season-long numbers suggest that they have the offensive advantage as well.
Give me the Royals to lead this one after five innings.
Pick: Royals First Five Innings Moneyline (-108)