MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (5/12)
Sunday is Mother's Day, so a special shoutout to all of the moms out there for all they do throughout the year.
That said, some of us may need to replenish the funds we have spent on the women in our lives this week. What better way to do so than by hitting some MLB player props?
Here are a few of my favorite picks for Sunday, May 11’s slate.
Sunday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
Zac Gallen OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-165 via ESPN BET)
I do not usually advocate for playing a player prop with such a price attached. Ideally, you can find a "safe" play to pair this with if you do not want to pay this price. However, I do think this bet still presents some value.
Zac Gallen has struck out six or more hitters in five of his seven starts this season. That alone should put this line at 5.5 instead of 4.5, in my opinion. The matchup itself is not particularly daunting, either. Gallen is facing the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday. Baltimore ranks right around the middle of the pack in all relative strikeout metrics, including home games, against right-handed pitching and over the past seven days.
We also may benefit from the Bill Miller bump. Miller will be behind the plate for Sunday's series finale. He is one of the most favorable umpires in the Major Leagues for pitchers. But truth be told, Gallen may not need any help from Miller on Sunday. His knuckle curve is generating a 43.7% whiff rate, while his slider checks in at 45.8%.
Vegas has Gallen's Total Outs prop listed at 17.5. Gallen is striking out over a batter per inning. If he approaches six innings on Sunday, I feel confident in him striking out at least five hitters.
Alek Manoah OVER 2.5 Walks (+120 via DraftKings)
What's more fun than sweating out a walk prop? Well, lots of things. Still, I am betting on Alek Manoah to walk at least three Minnesota Twins on Sunday afternoon.
Manoah has yet to overcome the control issues that have plagued him in recent years. Since the beginning of the 2023 season, Manoah has walked 63 batters in 91.1 Major League innings. His time in the Minors wasn't much better in the control department. Manoah walked 16 hitters in 27.1 innings during that span.
The Blue Jays called him up to make a start last weekend against the Washington Nationals. In that outing, Manoah walked four while throwing just 52 of his 92 pitches for strikes. The pitch count is encouraging as it relates to this player prop. The longer his leash is on Sunday, the more likely it is he will lose his control and walk hitters.
Minnesota is an average team in terms of walk rate, but they should have at least three hitters in the lineup with a walk rate of 10% or higher versus right-handed pitching this year. They should also have at least six lefty hitters in Sunday's lineup. Manoah's already-high walk rates last season spiked both at home and when facing left-handed hitters. I expect another wild outing from Manoah in this matchup against Minnesota. Give me the Over on his walk prop at plus-money.
Ryan McMahon OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-110 via DraftKings)
Ryan McMahon has struggled in May. At least, he had until Saturday night, when he had four hits. That performance may have gotten the Rockies third baseman out of his slump. McMahon has a favorable matchup on Sunday when the Rockies host former teammate Jose Urena and the Texas Rangers.
Urena spent most of 2022 and 2023 with the Rockies. Predictably, he did not fare well in Coors Field then. He allowed 40 earned runs in 52.1 home innings as a Rockie, 62 hits and 21 walks.
McMahon has always performed well in the thin air of Coors Field. He has a career slugging percentage of .507 when facing a right-handed pitcher at home. He has also had great career success against the available arms in the Rangers' bullpen. McMahon is 6-for-9 lifetime with a home run when facing the Texas relievers, who should be available for Sunday's game.
Walks can be a concern between Urena's occasional wildness and McMahon's high walk rate. Still, I think this is a prop worth playing, given the favorable matchup and price.