MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (6/16)
Sunday is Father's Day, so Happy Father's Day to all the dads. Let's get the party started early with some MLB player props.
Below is a trio of my favorite MLB player props for Sunday's games with pricing notes.
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Sunday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and Fanatics Sportsbook)
Lane Thomas Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-145 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
My first MLB player prop is backing Lane Thomas to record at least two combined hits, runs and RBI in his matchup on Sunday versus Jesus Luzardo and the Miami Marlins.
Thomas is swinging a hot bat at the plate entering Sunday's action. He has a nine-game hitting streak and has gone over this number in seven of those nine contests.
Thomas has also been a perennial lefty-masher throughout his career. He owns a .519 career slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching. Thomas has been even more successful against Jesus Luzardo, Miami's starting pitcher on Sunday.
In 18 head-to-head meetings, Thomas has reached base nine times against Luzardo. That includes three home runs and a double. This is a matchup Thomas has historically dominated, and I expect that to continue Sunday, especially given Luzardo's recent troubles.
The Miami southpaw has allowed 14 runs and 25 baserunners over his last three starts. In that span, Luzardo has struck out just 10 out of 72 batters. Considering the history between these two players as well as their recent form, this feels like a good spot for the Lane Train to keep rolling on Sunday.
ESPNBet also offers this market but they have a habit of waiting until late morning on the East Coast to offer it, so I am playing it on DraftKings at -145. BetMGM currently has this posted at -150 and I am not confident in ESPNBet beating this price.
Brady Singer Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
I must admit that I was surprised to see this number for this player prop at 17.5 and not an out or two lower. I was also surprised to see the price at a palatable -130.
Brady Singer has only gone over this number in five of his 13 starts this season. Those starts have a couple of things in common, neither of which will be in Singer's favor on Sunday.
First, all five of Singer's starts in which he has completed six innings this season have come at home. Singer has been much less efficient when pitching on the road this year.
He enters Sunday's matchup allowing a .378 wOBA away from Kauffman Stadium. The league average is .316. That means he is roughly 20% worse on the road than the average pitcher in a given game.
Singer is also facing the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday. This brings me to the second factor his six-inning starts have in common. All (slight caveat to follow) have come against opponents in the bottom half of MLB in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching.
In Singer's first start of the year, he pitched seven shutout innings against the Minnesota Twins. Minnesota has since moved into the top half of teams versus right-handers. However, at the time of this start, they ranked 17th.
Either way, the Dodgers are a significantly more difficult matchup. They enter this matchup third in baseball in wRC+ versus righties for the season, and fifth this month.
The Royals also have an off day on Monday and a relatively fresh bullpen. This includes three left-handers, two of which did not pitch on Saturday. I would not be shocked if Kansas City pulls Singer when the lineup gets to Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman a third time. In that scenario, Singer will have faced 20 batters. That would make it extremely unlikely for him to register 18+ outs given how tough the Dodgers lineup is.
I do not expect the -130 number to last very long. I would play it up to -150 and I would still consider it even if it drops to 16.5 depending on the price.
Tommy Pham Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Our final MLB player prop for Sunday takes us to the desert for the rubber match between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago White Sox.
Jordan Montgomery is on the mound for Arizona. He has been a mess all season. That is especially true at home and against right-handed hitters.
Montgomery has made six starts this season at Chase Field since signing with Arizona in March. Right-handed hitters are batting .370 and slugging .640 in exactly 100 at-bats in those starts.
Chicago should stack the lineup on Sunday with right-handed hitters, but there are a couple of reasons I prefer to back Tommy Pham over the others.
Pham has always been a solid performer against left-handed pitching. He has a 132 wRC+ versus lefties this year and a 129 mark for his career.
Pham also has a good history against Montgomery. He is 3-for-7 lifetime with two doubles against Arizona's starter. That is in line with Pham's production this season against Montgomery's pitch mix.
Pham has an expected batting average of .283 or better against three of Montgomery's top four pitches this year. The lone exception is the changeup, but Montgomery's changeup has been particularly awful.
Opponents are slugging .794 with an xSLG of .695 against Montgomery changeups this season. Pham should have the edge regardless of which pitches Montgomery goes with. I like Pham to record at least two total bases in this matchup.
I do not mind playing Pham to record at least two Hits + Runs + RBI, as I did with Thomas. However, this line is highly juiced at -160. Considering the other two props I played are priced fairly high, I wanted a little more bang for my buck with this last player prop.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: