Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (6/30)
The final day of June features a full slate of games for us to choose from. That means plenty of data to sift through and MLB player props to play.
Here are three of my favorite player props for Sunday's slate. As always, it is best to check lineups and maximize pricing before finalizing any wagers.
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Sunday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ranger Suarez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
For my first MLB player prop on Sunday, I am betting on Ranger Suarez to record at least six strikeouts against the Miami Marlins. Suarez has only registered four punchouts in each of his last two starts, but I expect that to change in this matchup.
Suarez has excellent numbers against the Marlins. He struck out nine Marlins over seven scoreless innings back in May. That has been par for the course for Suarez against Miami throughout his career.
In 98 combined career plate appearances versus Suarez, Marlins hitters have a 27.6% strikeout rate while posting a meager .541 OPS. And those numbers are eerily similar to the ones the team has posted in this split. When facing a left-handed pitcher so far this month, Miami has a 27.8% strikeout rate and a .559 OPS.
In an attempt to spark their offense, manager Skip Schumaker went with an all-right-handed hitting lineup against fellow Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sanchez on Friday night. The result was a three-hit shutout for Sanchez with nine strikeouts.
And while Suarez is not often credited as an elite strikeout artist, Sanchez is certainly not one. Before Friday's game, Sanchez had struck out 19.4% of right-handed hitters this year. Suarez has struck out 25.8% of right-handed batters this season.
Given these numbers, I love playing Suarez at plus-money to strike out at least six Miami hitters on Sunday. I do not mind backing Suarez in other markets as well depending on how much juice you are willing to lay, but this is my preferred method of attacking this matchup.
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel is usually one of the worst sportsbooks when it comes to pricing on total base props. So imagine my surprise when I saw Yandy Diaz at even money to record at least two total bases on Sunday when every other book that has this prop open has it at -115 or worse.
Let's start with Diaz and his recent form. He snapped a 20-game hitting streak on Saturday, but it was not for a lack of effort on his part. Diaz had the two hardest-hit balls of the game and had three hard-hit balls in four plate appearances. He simply got unlucky, which resulted in a 0-for-4 day.
Before Saturday, Diaz had recorded at least two total bases in 14 out of 20 games. I think he will get back on track on Sunday against Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals.
Among 87 qualified pitchers, Corbin has allowed the fourth-highest slugging percentage (.520) to right-handed hitters this year. Corbin generally features a sinker-slider combination to righties, which plays into Diaz's strengths.
Diaz has an expected batting average of .335 or better against both fastballs and breaking pitches from left-handed hurlers. Diaz should get three cracks at Corbin, which should be enough for him to exceed this total.
Washington's use of their high-leverage relievers on Saturday could also come into play if Corbin manages to keep Diaz in check.
The Nationals used Derek Law, Hunter Harvey and Kyle Finnegan for an inning each in an 8-1 victory. The trio needed some work, as none pitched since Tuesday. But that may come back to bite them on Sunday if Corbin cannot come through.
Either way, I expect Yandy Diaz to register at least two total bases on Sunday.
Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Most sportsbooks have not posted player props for the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants as I write this. The reason is because Saturday's game ran late, as the Dodgers won in 11 innings.
In that game, Los Angeles used every single relief pitcher in their bullpen. That means Sunday's starter, James Paxton, may be in for a longer outing than usual. With that in mind, I strongly considered betting on some of Paxton's overs. But ultimately, I landed on Heliot Ramos.
When facing a lefty this year, Ramos has a .409/.526/.864 triple-slash line. For reference, Aaron Judge's triple-slash line versus lefties is .313/.494/.703. Judge's sample size is a bit larger (87 plate appearances to 57 for Ramos), but Ramos has destroyed left-handed pitching this season.
Ramos has never faced Paxton, but Paxton's arsenal is somewhat limited these days. Paxton uses a four-seam fastball 61% of the time and a knuckle-curve 29% of the time when facing a right-handed hitter. Ramos has a .703 expected slugging percentage and a 73.3% hard-hit rate on four-seamers. He also has a .591 xSLG and a 54.5% hard-hit rate on curveballs.
I will caution that there is a rather high likelihood of Paxton walking Ramos at least once, which could throw a wrench in a total bases bet. Paxton has walked 13.4% of right-handed hitters and Ramos has drawn a free pass in 20% of his plate appearances versus left-handed pitchers.
If you wish to play it safer because of that, or because of the pricing on my other two MLB player props, you can play Ramos to go over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI at -125 odds.
However, I believe Paxton will know the assignment for Sunday is to try to attack hitters to eat innings. That means Ramos should get plenty of pitches to hit on Sunday. And I expect him to take advantage of Paxton and company in this matchup.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: