Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (8/4)
It's Sunday, which means a full day of MLB action! With 15 games on the docket, there are plenty of angles to ponder for our MLB player prop bets.
Here are three of my favorite MLB player prop bets for Sunday's games.
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Sunday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified)
Robbie Ray Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-131 at Caesars)
Robbie Ray has made two starts for the San Francisco Giants this year. He pitched five hitless innings versus the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road. Then he allowed four runs on seven hits in a home start against the Oakland A's at home. Go figure.
I think we are going to get the good Robbie Ray on Sunday when he faces the Cincinnati Reds. Saturday's game aside, Cincinnati has had major problems with left-handed pitching in recent weeks.
Since July 1, the Reds have the third lowest wRC+ versus lefties at 75. They also have the second-lowest batting average (.195) and fourth-highest strikeout rate (29.0 percent).
I do not mind playing either Ray's hits allowed prop or his strikeout prop if you have a strong lean. His hits allowed prop is currently 4.5 and priced at -137 to the Under while his strikeout prop is 6.5, with the Over at +115. We just saw Blake Snell throw a no-hitter against the Reds on Friday night, racking up 11 strikeouts in the process.
However, with Ray still ramping up his stamina after being out of the Big Leagues for a year and a half, I am not sure how many innings he will pitch on Sunday. San Francisco also has workhorse Logan Webb set to pitch Monday's game. These circumstances may lend themselves towards a moderate number of innings and pitches from Ray. Therefore, I would prefer to play the Under on his Earned Runs Allowed prop.
Also, if you are into this sort of thing, Bill Miller will be the home plate umpire for this game. Miller is arguably the most pitcher-friendly umpire in the game. He is second in Swish Analytics' K-Boost metric and has the lowest Walk Boost, Batting Average Boost, and Runs Boost among 113 umpires who have called at least 100 games behind the plate.
Jose Quintana Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115 at DraftKings)
Jose Quintana has been outstanding for the New York Mets over the past month and a half. I expect Quintana to keep rolling when he faces the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday.
Quintana has allowed a total of 10 earned runs in his last eight starts and five of those came in a blowup against the Colorado Rockies. Quintana has gone Under this number in his other seven starts since the middle of June.
He gets an ideal matchup on Sunday against the Angels. Los Angeles has the lowest wRC+ (57) in the Major Leagues versus left-handed pitchers since the beginning of July. They also have the lowest slugging percentage (.295), OPS (.556), and ISO (.089).
Their BABIP (.241) is the third lowest in this split. That means that while the Angels are not striking out a ton, they are also not hitting the ball hard or finding holes. This should play into Quintana's strengths because he is not a huge strikeout pitcher. Quintana has only struck out 18.7 percent of hitters this season.
In short, Quintana has been inducing a lot of weak contact, and the Angels hitters have been making a lot of weak contact. This matchup should be a favorable one for Quintana on Sunday. I am projecting him to allow fewer than 2.5 earned runs in this game.
Osvaldo Bido Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-116 at FanDuel)
I usually do not make a habit of targeting the Los Angeles Dodgers, especially with a pitcher entering Sunday's contest with a 5.00 ERA. However, I think there are some interesting data points to consider with Oakland starter Osvaldo Bido.
Bido has made three starts for the Athletics this season. In those three starts, Bido has struck out 29.6 percent of opposing hitters. This elevated strikeout rate appears to be a result of Bido's altered approach.
Last season, Bido only struck out 20 percent of right-handed hitters while throwing a slider or sinker 79 percent of the time. This year, Bido's arsenal is much more balanced. Sliders and sinkers make up only 47 percent of his pitches to right-handers, while Bido has used his four-seam fastball more and implemented a cutter. As a result, he has struck out 31.1 percent of right-handed batters overall this season.
The Dodgers have been striking out a lot lately, especially against right-handed pitchers. This is a different lineup without Mookie Betts, and even more so now without Freddie Freeman.
Since the All-Star break, Los Angeles has had the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handers, at 27.3 percent. That number jumps to 31.1 percent in the seven games Freeman has missed as he attends to a personal matter. Neither player will be available for the Dodgers on Sunday.
I also would not be surprised to see multiple bench players start this game for Los Angeles. They have been riding their starters pretty hard during this road trip, especially with Freeman out of the fold. Seven of their hitters have made six consecutive starts, and catcher Will Smith has started four in a row behind the dish.
Bido may benefit from a less potent lineup than we are used to seeing from the Dodgers. Either way, I like him to record at least five strikeouts in this game.