Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (9/1)
There is a full slate of MLB action set for Sunday. With Labor Day to follow, more teams will be in action on Monday than usual. That means we may see some extra players given some rest on Sunday.
We have also flipped the calendar to September. That means teams can expand their rosters. Teams that are out of contention in particular may give some younger players an added look down the stretch.
I do not think these factors will adversely affect my player prop selections for Sunday. But bettors should keep these things in mind. Discretion is always the better part of valor, so wager wisely.
Here are my top three MLB player props for Sunday, September 1st.
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Sunday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+102 at Caesars Sportsbook)
I usually forego total base props when it comes to Juan Soto because he is almost too patient. He leads the Majors in walks despite hitting in front of Aaron Judge, which says a lot. However, I think we have a better chance than normal of Soto swinging the bat on Sunday.
That is because Soto will square off against the St. Louis Cardinals and starter Miles Mikolas. Mikolas enters Sunday's matchup with a 3.9% walk rate this year. That is the fourth-lowest rate among 118 pitchers who have faced at least 400 hitters this season.
Indeed, Mikolas and Soto have faced each other 19 times in their careers. And Mikolas has yet to walk Soto in their head-to-head meetings. Soto has recorded 10 total bases in those 19 at-bats against Mikolas.
Mikolas is allowing opposing hitters to slug at a .472 mark in 2024. That is the 10th-highest mark among that same subset of 118 pitchers. Soto has the fifth-highest ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season. With Judge looming behind Soto, Mikolas should be forced to attack Soto head-on. I give the advantage to Soto in this matchup.
Adley Rutschman Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Adley Rutschman has struggled after an outstanding first half of the season. But if there is ever a matchup to get Rutschman off the schneid, this appears to be it.
The Baltimore Orioles finish off a three-game set in Colorado on Sunday against Ty Blach. Blach is replacing Cal Quantrill due to injury. Blach is far and away the most hittable pitcher in the Majors. A total of 190 pitchers have thrown at least 60 innings this year. Blach's .336 opposing batting average allowed is 27 points higher than any other pitcher.
Right-handed hitters have done most of the damage. Righties are hitting .374 versus Blach this year. Despite Rutschman's recent struggles, he is still hitting .342 this season as a right-handed hitter.
Rutschman also performs well against the pitches he is most likely to see from Blach on Sunday. He has a .366 expected batting average on fastballs from left-handed pitchers and a .307 mark against offspeed pitches. Blach throws fastballs 57% of the time and offspeed pitches 32% of the time when facing a right-handed batter this season.
I prefer playing Rutschman's hits + runs + RBI line rather than his total bases line because the latter is heavily juiced to the over. Baltimore's implied team total for this game according to Vegas is 6.5 runs. There should be no shortage of opportunities for Rutschman to both score and drive in runs.
Bryce Miller Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-150 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
My final MLB player prop for Sunday's slate is the under on Bryce Miller's earned runs allowed. The number is currently 2.5 and the price is -150. This is right around my threshold for what I am willing to pay, but the matchup is outstanding.
Miller has faced the Los Angeles Angels three times so far in his career. He has allowed just one total run in those three starts. In 18 innings, Miller has given up only 11 hits and one walk, while striking out 24 hitters.
His strikeout line is currently set at 5.5, with the over at -133 at Caesars Sportsbook. I strongly considered taking that prop instead. However, Miller has only struck out 17.5% of hitters on the road compared to 29.9% at home. That steered me towards the earned runs.
To be fair, his 4.62 xFIP is much worse than his 3.20 mark at T-Mobile Park. However, he has given up two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four road tilts. The lone exception was a game in Chicago in which Miller allowed three runs to the White Sox. And he had only given up one run through six innings before ceding two in the seventh.
Not only does Miller have an excellent history against the Angels, but Los Angeles is scuffling at the plate versus right-handed pitchers. They had the lowest wRC+ against righties in August, posting a 73 mark. Their 74 wRC+ at home versus right-handers was not much better.
I believe Bryce Miller will find a way to limit the damage and continue his dominance against the Angels on Sunday. I am betting on him to allow fewer than 2.5 earned runs in this game.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: