Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (9/8)
There may be other American sports happening on Sunday, but the Major League Baseball season is coming down to the wire. We have 15 games on tap around the league. That means many matchups to dissect for our MLB player props. In this case, I am targeting several teams who are already making plans for the winter.
Here are my top three MLB player props for Sunday, September 8.
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Sunday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Rafael Devers faces Chris Flexen on Sunday. Honestly, you probably do not need much more analysis than that when it comes to Devers' total bases prop. But I am a nice guy, so I will indulge you anyway.
Devers has a .627 slugging percentage this season versus right-handed pitching in Fenway Park. That is the sixth-highest mark among 285 hitters with at least 90 plate appearances versus right-handers in home games.
Flexen has made 13 road starts for the Chicago White Sox this year. In those outings, he has a 6.99 ERA. He has allowed opposing hitters to slug at a .526 clip. What is even better for total bases purposes is that Flexen has posted a relatively low walk rate (6.1%) when facing lefties on the road.
It should come as no surprise then that Devers has gotten the best of Flexen in their previous matchups. The Red Sox slugger is 4-for-7 with a double and two home runs lifetime against Flexen. I expect more of the same on Sunday.
If Flexen can somehow figure out a way to keep Devers in check, we always have the White Sox bullpen as a fallback option. Chicago's relievers have allowed opponents to bat .285 over the past 30 days. That is the second-highest number in the Majors.
No matter which way you slice it, this is a matchup Devers should smash. I am taking the over on his total bases prop on Sunday.
Freddy Peralta to Record a Win (+110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Milwaukee Brewers are -118 or worse to beat the Colorado Rockies by multiple runs on Sunday. I am not exactly sure why we are getting this MLB player prop at plus-money. But I was taught never to look a gift horse in the mouth. This by no means is to say Freddy Peralta is guaranteed to record a victory on Sunday. But I certainly like his odds to do so.
Peralta has won three of his last four starts, allowing a total of four runs in that span. None of his recent opponents are half as bad as Colorado.
The Rockies enter Sunday's game with a 21-53 road record this season. Since the All-Star break, Rockies hitters are batting .210 with a 31.2% strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitchers away from Coors Field. Peralta has also had much success versus Colorado in his career.
Lineups are subject to change of course, but Colorado's hitters are a combined 9-for-51 with three walks and 25 strikeouts in their career against Peralta. That includes a total of three runs and 23 strikeouts in two starts last season. I do not see Colorado generating much offense in this matchup.
On the other side of the equation, we have Kyle Freeland. Freeland enters this game with a 6.75 road ERA to go along with a 2-6 record in nine starts this year. To his credit, he has done well against Milwaukee in his career. But most of that success came at home. Freeland has given up eight runs in two career starts at American Family Field.
This game feels like a mismatch in every phase, so I will gladly take a Peralta win prop at +110.
Andrew Heaney Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125 at Caesars Sportsbook)
The Texas Rangers’ reign as World Series Champions is likely to come to an end without a return trip to the playoffs. But they are not going down without a fight. They look to win a fourth consecutive series when they host the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. Andrew Heaney has pitched well of late, and I expect that to continue in this matchup.
Specifically, I am targeting Heaney's hits allowed prop. I also considered his strikeout prop. Heaney has been excellent at home all year. For the season, Heaney has allowed a .200 batting average at Globe Life Field. He is 8-5 to this number at home and has yet to allow more than five hits in any of his 13 home starts.
The Angels have not faced many left-handed starters in recent weeks. But when they have, it has not been pretty. Los Angeles batters have hit .197 versus left-handed pitchers since August 12. That is the second-lowest average in the Major Leagues during that stretch.
Texas also does not push Heaney very often. Despite his recent success, Heaney has thrown over 90 pitches just once in his last eight starts. With the Rangers having an off day on Monday, there should be plenty of available arms in the bullpen when Heaney approaches the 90-pitch mark.
From a narrative standpoint, Sunday is a getaway day, which could mean a makeshift lineup from Los Angeles, whose season is already ostensibly over. We also have a pitcher-friendly umpire behind the plate in Ryan Blakney. Blakney's 0.94 batting average boost, per Swish Analytics, is the third-lowest among 87 umpires with at least 250 career games behind the plate.
All of this should add up to another solid outing from Heaney on Sunday. I like him to hold the Angels to under 4.5 hits in this game.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: