Top 5 MLB Player Prop Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions for Friday (8/26)
We have a jam-packed Friday night slate on tap today, and there is a multitude of player props to sort through. However, I’m taking that load off your hands. So let’s dive into my top five player props of the day.
(Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mike Minor Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals 7:05 pm ET
Mike Minor has been hit around quite a bit this season as he holds a 6.44 ERA upon entering this start. Tonight he’ll face a Nationals lineup that has performed much better than expected since trading Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Overall, the Nationals have the fourth lowest strikeout rate this season, which is only icing on the cake when it comes to Minor’s trends. He’s recorded less than five strikeouts in 71.4 percent of his starts, which gives us -250 odds that he will go under tonight.
Nelson Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals 7:05 pm ET
We’re going to continue fading Minor here as Nelson Cruz has crushed him over the course of his career. In 12 career matchups. Cruz is hitting .583 with two homers and three doubles, which makes five of his seven career hits off Minor extra-base hits. On top of that, Cruz has smashed left-handed pitching over the course of his career, as he has a .296 batting average and a .944 OPS. So this is an excellent matchup for Cruz.
Joe Musgrove Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals 8:10 pm ET
Joe Musgrove has been one of the best pitchers in the National League this season, and strikeouts have been a big part of his success this season. He averages 6.18 strikeouts per start, and tonight he gets a Kansas City Royals team that has been very different since the All-Star break. The Royals have the seventh highest team strikeout rate in the majors in the second half, as the trade deadline has made this team much younger and inexperienced. Lastly, this total is too low for Musgrove, considering the matchup. He has gone over this total in 68 percent of his starts, which gives us -214 implied odds he’ll go over again tonight.
Johnny Cueto Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (+105)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago White Sox 8:10 pm ET
Johnny Cueto has been on a roll over his last few starts, but his renaissance has caused the market to set the line just a tad too high. He’s thrown eight innings in each of his last two starts, and now this total will require him to pitch into the seventh. However, despite his recent stretch, the season-long data says he’s due for a shorter outing. As a result, Cueto has gone under this total in 61 percent of his starts, which gives us -157 implied odds that he’ll go under again. Those odds are excellent value on this plus money price.
Ian Happ Under 0.5 Hits (+115)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers 8:10 pm ET
Freddy Peralta has dominated Ian Happ over the course of their respective careers. The two have squared off 17 times, and Happ has only recorded one hit and struck out nine times. Despite that one hit being a homer, Happ does not have any metrics on his side, as many matchups have resulted in poor contact. Happ’s xBA against Peralta is .076. Peralta and the Brewers should keep Happ quiet.
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