Top 6 MLB Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/13)
Here are a few of our top MLB props for Tuesday’s slate.
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Jordan Montgomery: o/u 16.5 Outs
In seven starts since being traded to the Cardinals, Jordan Montgomery is 5-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 38 strikeouts. Tonight he faces a division rival that struggles against LHP.
Brewers Batting vs. LHP in 2022
- wRX+: 26th
- OBP: 24th
- BB% 5th lowest
- GB/FB Rate: 24th
The Picks: o16.5 Outs (-120 DraftKings)
Yu Darvish: o/u 6.5 Strikeouts
Yu Darvish is a much better pitcher at home. His ERA jumps from 2.45 at home to 4.09 on the road. Not only does his ERA spike up, but so does his opponent’s batting average; at home, opposing hitters are hitting .177 compared to .242 on the road.
The Pick: u6.5 Strikeouts (-155 DraftKings)
Logan Gilbert: o/u 4.5 Strikeouts
Logan Gilbert has a hit rate of 61% when the line is at 4.5 strikeouts in 2022. Over his last 12 home starts, he has hit this number eight times.
The Pick: o4.5 Strikeouts (-155 DraftKings)
Kyle Wright: o/u 4.5 Strikeouts
Wright has a 73% hit rate in 2022 when his K-Prop is at 4.5. He has five or more strikeouts in six of his last eight starts.
His opponent, the San Francisco Giants, has the 9th highest K% (23.5%) and 19th lowest wRC+ (83) against RHP, but over the last 30 days, the Giants have the highest K% and 23rd lowest wRC+ against RHP.
The Pick: o4.5 Strikeouts (-170 DraftKings)
Sean Murphy: To Hit an HR
Sean Murphy is a name you don’t see much in player props, but we will take a chance on him tonight against Cole Ragans and the Texas Rangers. The last time Ragans pitched against the A’s, he gave up three runs on four hits, including two home runs by Sean Murphy. Murphy is great at hitting LHP. He ranks 18th in ISO, 25th in SLG%, and 13th in wRC+ in 2022. At +370 odds, I like giving him a chance to go deep once again.
The Pick: Yes (+330 DraftKings)
Aaron Judge: To Hit an HR
Aaron Judge hasn’t hit a home run in over a week; he must not be feeling ok…For an average MLB player, that is normal, but we are talking about Aaron Judge, a guy on his way to rewriting the record books.
Judge and the Yankees are set to face the Boston Red Sox in a quick two-game mini-series.
Aaron Judge has eight at-bats against starter Nick Pivetta and has an average of .375 with three hits and one homerun. Let’s see if Judge can get back on track tonight and take one over the Green Monster.
The Pick: Yes (+185 DraftKings)
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