Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets, Odds & Picks: Sunday (9/22)
We are just one short week away from the conclusion of the 2024 MLB regular season. Let's get while the getting is still good with some player props for Sunday's slate.
Even on a normal Sunday, teams tend to throw out some funky lineups. That is doubly true this time of year, especially for teams out of contention. I would advise waiting until lineups are confirmed before locking anything in for Sunday, or at least use your best judgment. Here are my top three MLB player props for Sunday, September 22.
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Sunday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook)
Kerry Carpenter UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-140, DraftKings)
This player prop feels a bit wrong because I like Kerry Carpenter a lot. And he has a decent matchup against Baltimore Orioles starter Albert Suarez. The issue for me is that Carpenter's matchup is likely to only be against Suarez. Allow me to explain.
Manager A.J. Hinch almost refuses to let Carpenter face a left-handed pitcher. Since Carpenter returned to the lineup six weeks ago, he has just 14 plate appearances versus a lefty. Hinch does not do this with the other regular lefty hitters in Detroit's lineup. Parker Meadows and Riley Greene each have 37 plate appearances against lefties in that timeframe, while Colt Keith has 28. In fairness to Hinch, Carpenter's 18 wRC+ against lefties this year has a lot to do with this. Which brings me back to the prop.
The Baltimore Orioles have four left-handed pitchers available in their bullpen. Carpenter is only going to face Suarez two or three times. After that, he is extremely likely to be pinch-hit for once Baltimore goes to the pen. So far in September, Carpenter has had four or more plate appearances in just five of 13 starts. As a result, he has gone under this number in 10 of those 13 games.
This prop could be sunk five minutes after Suarez throws the game's first pitch. But considering that Carpenter is probably going to be capped at three trips to the plate, I am willing to play the Under here.
Paul DeJong UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-110, DraftKings)
Paul DeJong will likely get the start at third base for the Kansas City Royals on Sunday. He will have to deal with San Francisco Giants pitcher Blake Snell. Based on their history, Snell should have the advantage.
DeJong is just 1-for-9 lifetime with six strikeouts when facing the southpaw. Though the Royals use DeJong as a platoon bat against lefties, perhaps they shouldn't. DeJong has a 71 wRC+ and 37.2-percent strikeout rate when facing left-handed pitchers this year.
Snell has been dominant since returning to action in the middle of the season. In his last 13 starts, the left-hander has given up a total of 31 hits and 12 runs. Kansas City has lost six straight, and they have struggled versus left-handed pitchers in recent weeks.
In 103 plate appearances versus lefties in September, Royals hitters have a .497 OPS. Hits and runs should be hard to come by for Kansas City in this game.
DeJong has not hit higher than seventh in the lineup in any of his last four starts. Even if he somehow manages a hit against Snell, there is a very good chance he does not score or drive in a run.
DeJong has also had three or fewer plate appearances four times in his last nine starts. Like Carpenter, there is no guarantee he will play a full game on Sunday. He may face Snell two or three times and then get pulled for a pinch-hitter late in the game depending on the situation. This feels like a perfect matchup to fade Paul DeJong in, so I am taking the Under on his HRRBI prop.
Spencer Arrighetti to Record a Win (-103, Caesars)
The Houston Astros are on the verge of winning another American League West Division title. They look to defeat the Los Angeles Angels for the seventh time in the last 10 days on Sunday behind Spencer Arrighetti.
Arrighetti has five quality starts in his last six home starts. Strangely enough, that has only resulted in one win. However, the Angels should not put up much resistance in this game. Los Angeles has won just three of their last 14 games, and two of those wins came against the Chicago White Sox.
Los Angeles is trotting Griffin Canning to the mound for Sunday's series finale. Canning has the third-highest ERA and highest FIP among 99 pitchers who have thrown at least 120 innings this season. He also has unfavorable road splits and a rough history against Astros hitters.
Canning is 0-10 with a 6.45 ERA in 13 road starts this year. He has just two quality starts in those 13 games. We do not know exactly what Houston's lineup will look like on Sunday. But their hitters have combined for a .919 OPS in 95 total plate appearances against the 28-year-old hurler.
This game feels like it is a decided mismatch all around. Therefore, I am picking Spencer Arrighetti to record the win and the Astros to sweep the series.