MLB Player Prop Predictions: Thursday (5/14)
The Major League Baseball season is in full swing, and we have an electric 11-game slate on Thursday. I'm heading to the prop sheet to get some skin in the game today. Let's dive straight into my top MLB player props for Thursday, May 14th.
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Thursday's Top MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chase Burns Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+117)
Let's start the afternoon with an under on Chase Burns' strikeout prop. The right-hander has looked elite this season, going 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA (9th) and a 1.04 WHIP (25th). Most importantly for this prop, he's 35th in strikeouts (48) and averaging six punchouts per start.
I like this spot for a fade of Burns, as he takes on a Nationals lineup that's raking, ranking first in wOBA (.383) and ISO (.262) over the last seven days. This team does not strikeout often, sitting at 18.7% (third-lowest) across the last week.
The current roster is 4-for-16 (.250) against Burns with seven strikeouts. That's slightly high, but this Washington team is much more mature than when they faced him in July 2025. Let's take a shot on the plus-money that comes with the under.
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-151)
Seattle is 9-1 SU in its last 10 meetings with Houston, and they're primed to do some damage against Mike Burrows and his 5.04 ERA (73rd) this afternoon. The M's are 15-for-45 (.333) against the right-hander with a .956 OPS.
As for Julio Rodriguez specifically, he's 2-for-6 (.333) versus Burrows with a double and a walk. I'll back the star outfielder to register 2+ hits, runs, and RBI against the Astros. Rodriguez has been on a tear, hitting .320 with a .436 wOBA over the last week. He has cleared 1.5 HRR in six of his last seven games, and I love this matchup for him to build upon his recent heater.
Ian Happ Under 0.5 Hits (+121)
After rattling off 10 straight wins, the Cubs have now dropped four straight games. I'd venture to say it's unlikely that they turn things around against Chris Sale and his 2.20 ERA (14th) on Thursday.
I'm specifically looking to bet against Ian Happ. He's just 1-for-18 (.056) over the last week, going hitless in five of his last six outings. Happ is also 0-for-3 (.000) with three strikeouts against Sale. I like the plus-money that comes with Happ to go hitless for a fifth straight game.
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-136)
Meanwhile, Bobby Witt Jr. has been tearing the cover off the baseball recently. Over the last seven days, he ranks third in batting average (.478) and leads the league in wOBA (.662). His .565 ISO is second behind only Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber (.750).
Witt has gone for 2+ total bases in six straight games, and I like his chances to continue the streak against Chicago's Anthony Kay. The southpaw has struggled this season, logging a 4.89 ERA and a 6.67 xERA. Witt is 1-for-3 (.333) lifetime against Kay with a double. Between each player's current form and the head-to-head edge, I'm willing to back Witt in this divisional clash.