MLB Player Props & Bets: Brewers vs. Dodgers (Wednesday)
Wednesday's Game 3 of the National League Championship Series (NLCS) is a critical one for the Los Angeles Dodgers. The two-time defending World Series Champions look to come back from a 0-2 hole against the Milwaukee Brewers. Los Angeles is sending Blake Snell to the rubber to oppose Robert Gasser. Here are a few MLB player props I am looking at ahead of this matchup.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Props
Robert Gasser Under 11.5 Outs Recorded (+105 at BetMGM)
Despite Milwaukee winning the first two games of this series, they need to play aggressively in this game. The Brewers cannot afford to relinquish momentum and should not shy away from using their relievers. That is especially true given Robert Gasser's performance in his previous matchups against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Gasser made two starts versus Los Angeles this season, and neither one went particularly well for the left-hander. He allowed seven earned runs across 10.2 innings, including 12 hits and five walks. Collectively, Dodgers hitters are batting .313 and slugging .688 versus Gasser.
Among the players who have given Gasser fits are Andy Pages, Kyle Tucker and Tommy Edman. The trio is a combined 9-for-14 with five extra-base hits against Gasser. That matters because those three players are likely to hit toward the bottom of the lineup.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Pat Murphy only allowed Gasser to face those hitters once on Wednesday. In that scenario, Gasser would face only 14 or 15 hitters. If that is the case, I am willing to bet that he fails to last four innings.
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Ironically, Shohei Ohtani is one of the few Dodgers hitters whom Robert Gasser has had success against. The four-time MVP has zero hits in seven at-bats against Gasser. Ohtani, of course, has also underachieved in recent weeks, to the point where there was talk of Dave Roberts benching him for Game 3. Ultimately, he has decided to trust that Ohtani will figure it out. I am inclined to agree.
Ohtani is -175 to record at least one hit on FanDuel Sportsbook. That is a bit more than I am willing to risk on a player prop, even on a short slate. However, given the success of the other Dodgers hitters against Gasser, I expect plenty of traffic on the basepaths. That means we may only need one hit from Ohtani to drive in or score a run.
The question is where Ohtani will hit in the lineup, given his issues at the plate. But regardless of where he slots into the batting order, I am expecting him to deliver at least once in a must-win game for his team. I am taking Ohtani to record at least two combined hits + runs + RBIs in this matchup.
Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 Hits (-117 at Caesars Sportsbook)
It is never easy to bet against a regular player recording a hit over an entire game. But Garrett Mitchell has had a tough go of it in the playoffs thus far. He has also struggled mightily against left-handed pitching for several months now.
Mitchell has yet to record a hit across nine plate appearances in this series. That continues a successful track record for Dodgers pitchers against Mitchell. The outfielder had just two hits and six strikeouts in four regular-season games against Los Angeles.
Since the All-Star break, Mitchell has seven hits in 51 plate appearances against lefties. That will be a problem against Snell, who doesn't give up many hits. Opposing batters reached base via hits in only 17.9% of plate appearances against Snell this year. That number was slightly lower for left-handed batters (17%).
Mitchell is likely to face Snell twice and then get two plate appearances against the Dodgers’ bullpen. But because he hits toward the middle of the lineup, Los Angeles can mix and match with their left-handed relievers.
All five of Mitchell's plate appearances this series versus Dodgers relievers have been against lefties. I expect more of the same on Wednesday, so I am betting against Mitchell getting a hit