MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (5/15)
The MLB season is in full swing. Every Friday in this column, we will seek to attack pitcher matchups. We won't bore you with exclusively under only plays, but we won't shy away from them if they offer more value than usual. Total strikeouts, outs recorded, and as the season progresses, total hits and total bases; they're all in play. Let’s dig into our top MLB player props and picks for Friday’s slate of games.
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MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (5/15)
Season Record: 15-4
Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 RBI (+120 at DraftKings)
Rolling with Yordan today is all about attacking former first round pick pitcher Jack Leiter. The Astros slugger comes into this contest sporting a .321 batting average with 14 home runs and 30 RBI. He leads the Majors with a 56.4% Hard-Hit Rate. Alvarez is hitting .310 with five home runs over his last 15 games and should be able to exploit Leiter’s fastball. Leiter has struggled on the season to the tune of an unsightly 4.85 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and a .257 batting average against. Total bases was also a consideration here, but we instead decided to give readers our first ever plus juice play in the Friday edition of this column. The MLB Player Prop Cheat Sheet grades this with a 62 percent cover probability. Tap the Over on Alvarez for Friday's MLB action at DraftKings.
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (-160 at BetMGM)
Ketel Marte offers a semblance of value on most days but gets an added boost today thanks to a favorable matchup. Marte boasts a .314 batting average and .931 OPS against Kyle Freeland in his career; numbers that jump to a .375 batting average when facing Freeland in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Ketel has struggled on the season as a whole (.215 batting average), but has shown up when given strong head-to-head matchup data. Looking for further proof? Marte's line was jacked up to 2.5 total bases and 1.5 hits at most sportsbooks and exchanges. Mash the Over on Marte.
Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Hits (-235 at BetMGM)
We dipped into the MLB Player Prop Cheat Sheet well for this play, as Aranda is projected for 1.4 hits today and is listed at just 0.5. Aranda has had a hot bat recently, going 16-34 (.471) over his last 10 games. The pitching matchup against Janson Junk is not ideal, but we are, of course, riding with the hot bat here. Aranda has collected at least one hit in each of his last five games and in 11 of his last 15 overall. We chose BetMGM over Kalshi for this play as the juice is high enough that you are likely to want to pair it with another of your top plays over the weekend and collect on the odds boost. Opt for the Over on Aranda.
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.