MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (6/26)
The MLB season is in full swing. Every Friday in this column, we will seek to attack pitcher matchups. We won't bore you with exclusively under only plays, but we won't shy away from them if they offer more value than usual. Total strikeouts, outs recorded, and as the season progresses, total hits and total bases; they're all in play. Let’s dig into our top MLB player props and picks for Friday’s slate of games.
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MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (6/19)
Season Record: 24-13
Jacob Misiorowski Under 4.5 Hits (-315 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jacob Misiorowski continues to impress for Milwaukee and comes into this contest with a Cy Young level 1.45 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 13.35 K/9, and a .146 batting average against. He has proven success against the Chicago Cubs roster as well, striking out eight while holding them to just three hits on May 19th (.157 BAA). For tonight, we will be opting for the hits total instead of the strikeout total as Chicago has plate discipline to make his inflated total a sweat. The actual hits total is 3.5, but to be safe, we will eat some juice, move it to 4.5, and target the under. There is over a 20 percent jump in 'hit' probability at 4.5 as opposed to 3.5, but for those who are high vig averse, tap the 3.5 if you feel comfortable. Mash the Under on Misiorowski for Friday night at Bet365.
Vladimir Guerrero Over 0.5 Hits (-308 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Vladdy is hitting a solid .273 on the season but has limited to no protection in the Blue Jays lineup, which has him trending towards the worst full season of his career. Toronto got worse over the offseason, and that fact has been apparent all over the diamond. Vladdy is still a dangerous hitter, but a lack of protection allows opposing pitchers to pitch around him. Being more name than game this season, the Blue Jays slugger hasn’t been someone we have targeted on Fridays in this column.
However, tonight he will face off against a familiar and welcome foe in Nathan Eovaldi. Vladdy has been excellent against Eovaldi over his career, batting .444 over 27 at-bats. Four of his 12 hits went for extra bases, with two of them being long balls. Nathan Eovaldi has been inconsistent this season and will toe the rubber in this one with a 4.24 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .246 BAA. The alt line features heavy juice at DraftKings, but Guerrero has not been hitting well enough to trust with a two hit total, even against someone he has been dominant against in Eovaldi. Tap the Over on the 0.5 alt line at DraftKings.
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-305 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Skenes has been dominant for the Pittsburgh Pirates this season and will hit the mound with a sparkling 3.17 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 10.94 K/9, and a .199 batting average against. He has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last five games and in 10 of his last 11. This is an important number, as the actual strikeout total for today is listed at 7.5 and has already reached 8.5 at some other sportsbooks. Skenes hit eight or more strikeouts in his last two games, but in just three of his last seven overall. The Reds strikeout at the second highest rate in the Majors, so we are taking the alt total despite the high juice, even if it is just as a parlay odds builder. Skenes has a .217 lifetime BAA versus the current Reds roster. As always, lay one unit and get your return; do not go chasing full unit returns unless your bet style and roll mesh. Pop the Over on Paul Skenes for Friday night at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.