MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (6/5)
The MLB season is in full swing. Every Friday in this column, we will seek to attack pitcher matchups. We won't bore you with exclusively under only plays, but we won't shy away from them if they offer more value than usual. Total strikeouts, outs recorded, and as the season progresses, total hits and total bases; they're all in play. Let’s dig into our top MLB player props and picks for Friday’s slate of games.
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MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (6/5)
Season Record: 18-10
Ronald Acuna Over 0.5 Hits (-232 at NoVig)
Ronald Acuna does not have the profile of someone we would typically tap in Friday's version of this column, as he has hit just .249 on the season, and his hit total carries the type of high juice many tend to shy away from. However, Acuna has been heating up lately, bumping his average up from .238 to .249, thanks to hitting .333 over his last seven games. Acuna has at least one hit in six of those seven contests. Tonight, Acuna will face off against a pitcher he has had tremendous success against in Mitch Keller. The Braves’ leadoff hitter is hitting .421 lifetime against Keller, with all three of his extra base hits going yard. Keller has been inconsistent this season, sporting an enviable 1.17 WHIP but a bloated 4.35 ERA. His Expected ERA is not much better at 4.24. Rap the Over on Ronald Acuna for Friday night’s MLB action at NoVig.
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120 at DraftKings)
Some of you may have noticed that we have leaned towards higher-juice hit totals rather than playing it safe with base lines that come with lower hit probabilities but more comfortable odds. Matt Olson gives us a reason to dip back into the total base well. Olson is hitting just .269 on the season, but is facing off against Mitch Keller, a pitcher he has dominated in 12 career at-bats. Olson has hit .500 (6-12) lifetime against Keller, but has been even better at home, where he is 3-4 (.750) with a home run. Olson has been hot over his last seven games, with two or more hits in four of his last seven games and at least one hit in five of those seven for a .344 batting average. Mash the Over on Matt Olson for Friday night's slate.
Martin Perez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+104 at DraftKings)
This was meant to be an Aaron Judge total if he returned to action today, but with the Yankees star sidelined for the next 4-6 weeks, we will pivot to Martin Perez. The early money on this one certainly has me worried, as the 4.5 strikeout total opened at -148 on the Over, but is now plus money at all books, markets, and exchanges. This is likely due to Perez displaying some control issues, but he will be facing off against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that averages 9.11 strikeouts per game. Perez has a .229 lifetime batting average against versus current Pirates hitters. Perez has had a strong season to this point, and comes into this one sporting a 2.79 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a .222 BAA. Perez has relinquished two or fewer runs in six straight contests. Press the Over on Perez for Friday night at DraftKings.
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.