MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (8/7)
The MLB season is in full swing. Every Friday in this column, we will seek to attack pitcher matchups. We won't bore you with exclusively under only plays, but we won't shy away from them if they offer more value than usual. Total strikeouts, outs recorded, and, as the season progresses, total hits and total bases; they're all in play. Let’s dig into our top MLB player props and picks for Friday’s slate of games.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (8/7)
Season Record: 35-20
Julio Rodriguez Over 0.5 Hits (-233 at Underdog Sportsbook)
Julio Rodriguez has had an uneven season to this point, bottoming out in the month of July, where he hit just .200 over 50 at-bats (10-50). He has started to heat up in August, managing six hits in just 13 at-bats for a .462 average. He will look to keep his momentum going tonight against a familiar foe in Drew Rasmussen, whom he has a .300 lifetime batting average against over 10 at-bats, with two extra-base hits and one home run.
Rasmussen has been impressive with a 2.91 ERA, 0.93 ERA, 9.4 K/9, and 6.10 K/BB. He has the type of profile you generally want to avoid for hitter props, but the success Julio has had against the Rays pitcher, albeit over a limited sample size, offers some value, even with the juice at -233. As always, keep it to a one unit play; do not chase a one unit return. Jab the Over on Julio for Friday night at Underdog Sportsbook.
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 Hits (-213 at Kalshi)
Freddie Freeman has become a staple in this column on Fridays, thanks in large part to a strong track record against the pitchers he has gone up against under the Friday night lights. Freeman is day-to-day with a hand injury, but after X-rays came back negative, he is expected to play tonight. Freeman is batting a strong .310 with 15 homers and 54 RBI on the season. Tonight, he will get to square off against Merrill Kelly, a pitcher he has collected 10 hits against over 30 at-bats for a .333 lifetime batting average.
Merrill Kelly has had massive struggles this season. He will toe the rubber with an atrocious 5.04 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. He is walking batters at a career high rate of 3.62/9, and his FIP of 5.66 suggests that his numbers could be even worse if not for the defense behind him. The actual total is set to 1.5 at most books, so this juice on this alt line is set to soar as we draw closer to game time. Freeman is riding a 15-game hit streak in which he has hit .379 (22-58). Lock this one in as soon as possible.
Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-152 at Underdog Sportsbook)
Drew Rasmussen has been electric for the Tampa Bay Rays and will step to the mound in this one with a strong 2.91 ERA to go along with a sparkling 0.93 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, and an elite 6.10 K/BB. Rasmussen has walked more than one batter just once in his last 11 games.
Seattle is in the middle of the pack in terms of drawing walks but will be facing the cream of the crop in terms of limiting free passes in Rasmussen, whose 1.53 walks per game rank second in the Majors. The earned run total was also given consideration, but with walks being the more controllable variable, we opted for the Under on the walks allowed prop. Rap the Over on Rasmussen for Friday night's MLB action.
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.