MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (9/18)
The MLB season is in full swing. Every Friday in this column, we will seek to attack pitcher matchups. We won't bore you with exclusively under only plays, but we won't shy away from them if they offer more value than usual. Total strikeouts, outs recorded, and, as the season progresses, total hits and total bases; they're all in play. Let’s dig into our top MLB player props and picks for Friday’s slate of games.
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MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (9/18)
Season Record: 49-24
Marcus Semien Over 0.5 Hits (-165 at BetMGM)
Marcus Semien has been heating up lately, collecting at least one hit in each of his last six games and in nine of his last 10. He is batting just .220 on the season, but is hitting .263 over that stretch, putting him on the radar for tonight's slate, thanks to a plus matchup against a familiar face in Jose Urquidy. Semien is .389 lifetime against the Phillies pitcher, with seven hits in 19 at-bats, including four extra base hits and two homers.
Jose Urquidy struggled enough this season that he was waived by the Pittsburgh Pirates and subsequently claimed by the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday. Urquidy has a 5.28 ERA and 1.52 WHIP and is expected to operate as a bulk reliever for 'opener' Zach Thornton, which means he should have at least four to five innings of work. The juice on this is much more favorable than it should be. Slap the More on Semien for Friday night’s MLB action at BetMGM.
Cade Cavalli Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-138 at NoVig)
Cade Cavalli has been rock solid for the Washington Nationals this season and will come to the mound today with a 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 9.81 K/9. Cavalli has been locked in lately, racking up at least seven strikeouts in each of his last seven contests. He lasted at least six innings in six of those seven, punching out eight in just 4.0 innings of work.
The line currently sits at 6.5 at most books, but a couple still have him listed at 5.5 for tonight's contest, with a low vig. Cavalli has topped both six and seven strikeouts in 11 of his last 15 games, but obviously the 5.5 line is the superior value, especially against a disciplined team like the St. Louis Cardinals, who average the sixth-fewest strikeouts per game at 7.87 per contest. Hit the Over on 5.5 at NoVig for Friday's MLB action.
Paul Skenes Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110 at BetRivers)
I was ready to provide analysis on why Paul Skenes was an Over candidate to consider for tonight’s slate, given his terrific 10.28 K/9. However, deeper analysis suggests that the value is actually on the Under. So, with that in mind, we will do something we never thought we'd do here on Fridays and suggest an Under on Paul Skenes. Skenes has managed just four strikeouts in each of his last four games and has not cleared five in five straight contests.
Adding to the Under lean is the fact that the Kansas City Royals are one of the more disciplined teams at the plate, averaging just 7.83 strikeouts per game, the fourth-lowest mark in the Majors. 5.5 seems low for a player who was set as high as 8.5 just nine starts ago, but as mentioned above, he is not throwing his best stuff at the moment. Slap the Under on Skenes if you feel comfortable rooting against the flamethrower.
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.