MLB Player Props & Bets: Guardians vs. Rays (Friday)
The MLB season is in full swing. Every Friday in this column, we will seek to attack pitcher matchups. We won't bore you with exclusively under only plays, but we won't shy away from them if they offer more value than usual. Total strikeouts, outs recorded, and, as the season progresses, total hits and total bases; they're all in play. Let’s dig into our top MLB player props and picks for Friday’s slate of games.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
MLB Player Props & Bets: Friday (10/16)
Regular Season Record: 54-25
Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 Hits (-205 at ProphetX)
Yandy Diaz looks primed to push his average back up to respectability tonight thanks to a plus matchup against Tanner Bibee. Diaz was excellent during the regular season, swatting 22 home runs to go with 85 RBI and 92 runs on a .293 batting average. He is batting just .240 in the postseason, but is facing off against a pitcher he has had success against to the tune of a .353 lifetime average (6-17). Diaz faced Bibee twice this season, going .429 over seven at-bats.
Tanner Bibee had his struggles during the regular season, finishing with a 4.28 ERA to go with a solid enough 1.22 WHIP. Bibee is expected to play a bulk reliever role tonight, and while he is not expected to be the opener, in what is expected to be a bullpen game, he should eat up the most innings. Despite the poor batting average over the small postseason sample, Diaz has at least one hit in five of his six contests. The line is fair at ProphetX, but may rise quickly if the number at other books is any indication. Lock this one in sooner rather than later to avoid paying more juice. Dap the Over on Diaz for Friday night's ALCS action at ProphetX.
Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Hits (-170 at NoVig)
Junior Caminero was excellent for the Rays during the regular season, hitting .279 to go with 42 home runs, 101 RBI, and 100 runs, putting together an AL MVP level campaign. Caminero is batting just .238 in the postseason, however, but an expected two to three at-bats against Tanner Bibee could help break him out of his funk. Caminero has a lifetime .308 average against Bibee over 13 at-bats, with two of his four hits going for extra bases (including one long ball earlier this year).
As mentioned above, Bibee has struggled to the tune of a 4.28 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He mixed good starts in with bad starts, but was moved to the bullpen as the Guardians went to a truncated rotation during the postseason. Bibee should see the most innings of any of Cleveland's pitchers tonight and, as such, is the pitching matchup focus. The line is extremely favorable for an AL MVP candidate and is likely based on the Guardians’ bullpen game and Caminero's low relative batting average compared to what we saw from him this season. Whatever the case, if Bibee gets in the game as expected, Caminero should get at least one hit. Junior had a hit in four straight games before going 0-4 against Gavin Williams and co. Jab the Over on Junior for tonight's ALCS action at NoVig.
Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 Hits (-140 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Travis Bazzana does not fit the typical profile of the hitters we discuss in this column on Fridays, but with the Guardians going with a bullpen game and Nick Martinez on the mound for the Rays, squashing our typical strikeout play, we opted for the hitter who had the most success against Martinez in the regular season. Jose Ramirez did not have a hit against him all season, while Bazzana went .500 against Martinez over four at-bats. He went 0-2 in April (Bazzana's MLB debut), before seemingly solving the code and going 2-2 in July.
Nick Martinez was rock solid for the Rays this season, going 15-6 with a strong 3.10 ERA that he paired with an excellent 1.09 WHIP. As a groundball pitcher, he had just 109 strikeouts in 180 innings. Bazzana collected two of the seven hits Martinez allowed to Cleveland this season and has looked better in this series, generating a hit in two of the first three games. Bump the Over on Bazzana for tonight's MLB action at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.